Good Teams Beat the Teams They Are Supposed to Beat

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, a World Series contender is supposed to beat the bottom feeders, not play to their level. If the Cardinals end up on the outside looking in when the playoffs open, they'll have no one to blame but themselves. Yet again, we see a team that was supposed to be the class of the NL Central drop two games to a team they should be taking 2 of 3 from (if not sweeping). No disrespect meant to the Pirates -- they have some intriguing young talent for the first time in what seems like forever. But, the Cardinals have a payroll that suggests contender, they've signed free agents thinking it enhanced their standing as contenders, and they've made late season trades that are consistent with moves a contender would make. Yet here we sit on 8/25 and they are 3.5 games behind the Reds for the NL Central lead and are 1 game out of the NL Wild Card. Obviously, plenty of time left, but you gotta get it going. NOW. This season won't be considered successful in St. Louis without a solid showing in the playoffs.

Here's a quick look at what's at stake for other NL playoff contenders:

Reds - The season's a success at this point -- no matter what happens. That said, Walt Jockety has done a nice job of mixing veteran players with the young talent that the Reds had developed. This team has really taken on the challenge of being a power in the NL -- not just a surprise.

Braves - Many tabbed them to have a good season, and they've delivered. Winning one last division for the retiring Bobby Cox would be a fitting end to one of the greatest managerial careers in the history of the game. I don't see them letting go of a playoff spot at this point, but Philly always seems to make a late charge, so they may end up the Wild Card. Missing the playoffs is always considered disappointing for a team with Atlanta's recent history, but would be especially painful after the season they've had so far.

Phillies - While currently on a 3 game losing streak, the Phillies are starting to play like the team that many expected them to be when 2010 opened. They are currently tied atop the Wild Card standings, but are only 2.5 out of the division lead. Outside of the Yankees, there probably isn't another team in baseball that will see more negative press for missing the playoffs. If/when they make it to October baseball, they'll be a tough out for anyone with a rotation of Halladay, Oswalt and Hamels.

Padres - They've been the surprise team of the year, and they just keep rolling. Their pitching is as good as anyone's despite the fact that it doesn't have the name recognition. Their offense isn't as feared as other teams', but they excel at getting the key hits when they matter. A nice playoff run, and Adrian Gonzalez could be a full fledged star -- not to mention one step closer to being a former Padre. It'd be disappointing, and a little surprising, to see them lose their 6 game lead at this point, but the season is a huge success simply because they played well enough to hang onto A-Gon and Heath Bell all season -- players many predicted would be gone long before the non-waiver trading deadline.

Giants - The division is a longshot at this point, but they're tied for the Wild Card. Buster Posey has had a monster season, and could easily end up winning Rookie of the Year, which would be quite a feat considering the great play we've seen from rookies in 2010. Their big guns in the rotation haven't been as good as expected, but you can't count out a team that can go into a short series with Lincecum and Cain pitching the first two games.

Where Did the Fight Go?

I had the best intentions of writing a post about the now infamous fight in Cincinnati last week, but the reality of life with a 6 month old child and 40+ hour a week job (not to mention being old and needing sleep) got in the way. With the extra few days of perspective, my viewpoint changes, and not really for the better.

The Cardinals finally looked like the team most expected them to be during that series versus the Reds. They were ticked at Brandon Phillips calling them "little bitches", and they set out to show him and his team why they were still the team to beat in the NL Central. It was a much anticipated series, and turned out to be a bit of a yawn. With sweep in hand, the Cards returned home to face the lowly Cubs and a roster that looked like it belonged in Des Moines. I was thinking sweep, or 2 of 3 at the very least.

Now that the Cards have dropped 2 of 3, I'm starting to become more and more convinced that this is a team destined to go out with a whimper once October rolls around -- assuming they even make it that far. For the second straight series, the Cardinals can only manage one win against the Cubs. Had the Redbirds shown any streak of consistency at all in 2010, I might chalk this up to the rivalry and the fact that these series against their biggest rival are about as close to meaningful baseball as the Cubs are going to see from here on out. We've seen this series after series with this year's Cardinals, though, and unless that mythical switch is out there just waiting to be thrown, we might be seeing a team falling far short of expectations. A shame, given that so many things are going right:

1. Wainwright is having his second straight Cy Young worthy campaign.
2. Pujols has turned things on and just became the only player in history to hit 30 HR in 10 straight seasons.
3. Matt Holliday is putting up numbers consistent with a guy who commanded huge money on the free agent market.
4. Jaime Garcia has more than made up for the departure of Joel Piniero and softened the injuries of Lohse and Penny.
5. Rookie Jon Jay has been raking and is an almost permanent fixture in the 2 hole.
6. Colby Rasmus still has some room to grow, but is clearly blossoming into one of the team's best players.
   

In spite of all of this, the Cards still find themselves trailing the Reds on 8/16. Why is that? You can point to some of the under-performers -- Ryan, Schumaker, Lopez, etc. Then there are injuries to guys like Freese, Lohse, Penny and (since traded) Ludwick. The big problem, though, is that the team doesn't seem to play with that "Win or Die" mentality that Tony LaRussa managed teams seem to carry. Tough to pinpoint a simple reason why that is missing, but if this team doesn't find its heart soon, then we'll be talking 2011 much sooner than any of us would have thought.

ARod reaches 600 and Trade Deadline Reaction

Alex Rodriguez FINALLY hit #600 in his first at bat against the Blue Jays today. I'm sure a nation of Yankee haters can rejoice that the daily updates on ARod will be coming to an end after a day of tributes. The milestone leaves me with mixed feelings. On the one hand, I've come to appreciate ARod for the fact that he's finally done what I'd always wanted him to do -- cut out all the "I need to be the perfect superstar ballplayer" crap and just turned into a ballplayer. The flip side is that he's an admitted PED user, so his 600 doesn't mean as much as a guy like Ken Griffey Jr. reaching the same level. I guess in many ways, ARod has come to represent what I started to dislike about the Yankees betweeen 2002 and 2008 -- the excess, the flaunting of their financial power, the ability to hate without admitting you respect the team/player. Those were cornerstones of Torre's early years, and I felt like after losing the World Series in 2001. But still, it's a milestone, and I think years from now, as the dust settles from the steroid era, I think ARod will get his due for being the player that he is.

Last weekend also saw the non-waiver trading deadline come and go. For all the talk that it would be a quiet deadline this year, it sure seems like there was a lot of activity. The Yankees added Lance Berkman, Austin Kearns and Kerry Wood. I was pleased with all three acquisitions, and think this might strengthen the team to a point where they'll be awfully tough to beat in October, providing their starting pitching returns to full health. Wood is a player that I was especially pleased to see in pinstripes. I've watched his career from the beginning, and really was annoyed with the way the Cubs shuffled him out of town. He adds depth to a bullpen that has been struggling of late.

Down in St. Louis, it has been a bit of a mixed bag. The Cardinals ripped off 8 straight wins after the All Star Break, but have been a model of inconsistency since. Most frustrating for me is that they seem to play poorly against teams they should be beating. Both Houston and the Cubs are teams that are struggling and there really is no excuse for expecting a team to take 2 of 3 games in a series from these teams. But, time and again, we've seen this team lost 2 of 3, and that just doesn't give you a good feeling as we get closer to the end of the season. Cincinnati hasn't show much sign that they are going away, and a team with championship aspirations MUST pad a lead against the lesser teams in the division.

The trade deadline was a bit quieter in St. Louis. The team was in the mix for Roy Oswalt, but had to settle for Jake Westbrook. Westbrook, who is a groundball pitcher, seems like an ideal guy for Dave Duncan and the Cardinals pitching staff, and the depth helps negate the injuries to Lohse and Penny, not to mention gives you some protection against Jaime Garcia hitting the rookie wall. The trade did spell the end of Ryan Ludwick's time in St. Louis and I'm very sorry to see him go. His was a great story and you love seeing a guy like that stick with things and finding his chance to be an everyday player. His playing time had slipped due to injury and the emergence of hot-hitting rookie John Jay, so something had to give. Ludwick should fare well in San Diego. They're a team that reminds me very much of the Cardinals of the last few years, and they should have a regular spot for "Luddy" in their outfield. They are a possible playoff opponent, should the Cardinals hold off the Reds, so you do worry a bit about him coming back to haunt his old team.

D. Lee - Loser, Part 2: ....And we have our answer

I had started out the day thinking about my post regarding Derrek Lee and the possibility that he'd veto any deal that would send him to a contender. One very plausible reason that Lee would veto a trade -- something I knew about but wasn't thinking of as I wrote my entry -- is because his daughter suffers from a rare disorder called Leber's Congenital Amaurosis. You can read more about Lee's Project 3000 here.

I would give Lee a pass here if I truly believed that was the reason, but there is some evidence to suggest that a bigger reason is just that Lee would prefer to draw his salary and finish out the season with the Cubs and doesn't care in the slightest about having a chance to compete down the stretch -- and of course rebuild some of his value as he heads into free agency.

The topic came up on WSCR's "The Mully and Hanley Show" this morning as the hosts spoke with Chicago Tribune baseball writer Phil Rogers. You can listen and judge for yourself, but to me, Rogers tone of voice confirmed what I've thought and written about -- that Lee doesn't put much importance on winning. Rogers even mentioned that when asked about going to a contender, Lee commented that he'd "...been on 100 loss teams before..." when he was in Florida. Hardly sounds like a guy that values the ring, huh?

And now we have proof as ESPN1000's Bruce Levine has confirmed that Lee will turn down any opportunity to join a contender, in spite of the fact that we know that both the Rangers and the Angels have inquired about making a deal. I can now say, with certainty, that Derrek Lee is the PERFECT poster child for the mess that the Cubs have become.

D. Lee: How to admit you're not a winner without actually saying so

When he was first traded to the Cubs, I thought that Derrek Lee was as classy of a player as there was in the NL. He also chose that time to start putting up some pretty impressive numbers, and so I thought the Cubs at least had a player around that I could root for. Now, in 2004, I was probably closer to being a bandwagon Cubs fan than I've ever been at any time in my life. Let me explain that real quick -- I grew up a Cards and a Yanks fan, but lost touch with baseball a bit when basketball was top dog in sports. I also drifted away from the Cards a bit because of some down years and then Tony La Russa's decision to force out my all time favorite player -- Ozzie Smith -- in favor of Royce Clayton. Had the Cards won the NLCS in '96 and faced the Yankees in the World Series, this point would be moot. 1996 was also the year I had moved to the Chicago area, and was dating my future wife, who is a HUGE Cubs fan. I had so much fun watching the 2003 post season through her (and other Cubs fans that I know) that it was tough not to get a little caught up in things. As 2004 opened, my wife and I made our first trip to Spring Training in Arizona, and it seemed like the Cubs were about to put it all together. Statistically speaking, they had a better year than many realize, but what you saw playing out in reality was a team built to win that had put itself in position to do just that -- and then choked the whole thing away with as unlikeable group of players as I've ever watched. Chief among them for me -- Sammy Sosa, Moises Alou and (possibly my least favorite player of all time) LaTroy Hawkins. In '05, I made the first of my yearly treks down to Busch Stadium -- this one for the final time at the second version of the park -- and it rekindled my love of the Cardinals.

(AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)

Sorry, that was quite a tangent....but does speak to the respect I had for Derrek Lee. He's hit .282, averaged around 25-26 homers, stolen over 100 bases and driven in 983 runs in his Cubs career. He's played gold glove caliber defense for most of this time, and has won the award in '05 and '07. He also won the Silver Slugger award in '05. He had done all of this with a quiet grace, and I took him as a player coming into his own that lead by example. He was easy to root for. The one thing I always bristled at -- and, yes, largely because of my rooting interests -- was that the Cubs had their answer to Albert Pujols. Sorry, Derrek Lee has NEVER been anything other than a poor man's Pujols on his best days.

Earlier this week, Jayson Stark of ESPN tweeted the following:

A source who has known Lee for years says it's "highly doubtful" he'd waive his full no-trade to OK any deal at this stage.

My opinion of Lee has been on the decline over the last few seasons, and I think it may have bottomed out with this revelation. Obviously, until we get to the end of this season, we can't close the door on the topic, but to me, this confirms what I've started to suspect for the last couple of seasons -- that Derrek Lee just isn't a player that is driven to win. I started to notice a shift in his body language the last few years and saw signs that he was far to nonchalant towards the game. Sure, there were the flashes of anger as he'd slam his bat down after striking out at a key moment in a game or when he'd hit into a(nother) double play -- it got to a point where the sports media here in Chicago started calling him "DP Lee". He rebounded nicely in the second half last year and I thought his impending free agency coupled with the arrival of Rudy Jaramillo would be key factors in a big year for Lee.

That hasn't been the case. He's currently hitting .251 with 11 HR and 44 RBI. Not awful numbers, but not what you've come to expect from D-Lee. According to baseball-reference.com, his runs above replacement has dropped from 45 in '09 to 4 in '10. Pretty big drop, huh? His wins above replacement has slipped from 4.7 to .4 in the same time. I've also heard mention on WSCR (a Chicago sports/talk radio station) that both Lee and Aramis Ramirez were players that had refused instruction from Jaramillo earlier in the season. They may not have agreed with his teachings, but given the sluggish start both players got off to, there is no earthly reason why you wouldn't talk to your hitting coach to see what he might suggest.

If Lee refuses to be traded to a contender, that cements it for me. (How could a Southern Cal native not see the benefit of playing in LA?) He's just another player out there who puts up good numbers, plays the game well during his time and then fades into the background after he retires. I think Lee has the talent to have been an all time great player -- if not at least an all time great Cub. As it is, I don't think he'll be all that fondly remembered....He'll be missed next year certainly, but 10 years from now, I don't think he pops to mind as a defining player of this current Cubs team. And that's too bad, because I think we're seeing proof that he is all too good a representative of this decade's Cubs -- talented, capable, but ultimately forgettable.

I-55 Showdown, Lou Retires, Cards Finally Lose a Game

The Cardinals opened the second half with 8 consecutive wins. During the run, they played as well as they have all season. The offense, for the most part, resembled the one that we all expected coming into the season. The most gratifying of the wins in this stretch was a come-from-behind win vs. the Dodgers last Sunday -- all with Albert Pujols taking a much deserved day off. Birthday boy Allen Craig filled in at first and had a big day -- driving in 3 runs, including the tying run. Matt Holliday, who is starting to look like a player worthy of being a team's highest paid, drove in the winning run. The Cards followed up the sweep of the Dodgers by taking 3 of 4 from the reeling Phillies before falling 2-0 in extra innings yesterday. From here, the scene shifts to Chicago as the I-55 rivalry is renewed. I've said time and again that for my money this is the best rivalry in baseball. The one element truly missing, however, is that it is extremely rare to have both teams in position to win it all. The last time this rivalry was ratcheted up due to a playoff berth was 2003. Both teams have been in the mix since, but that was the last time that you saw the off-field quotes that make a rivalry all it can be.

We also learned this week that Cubs manager, Lou Piniella, has decided to hang it up after this year. His time in Chicago hasn't been as successful as many had hoped. He did lead the Cubs to two consecutive division titles in '07 and '08, but both times the team was swept out of the playoffs. In '09, it was the Cardinals turn to win the division and get swept by a team from the NL West. 2010 has seen the Cubs underperform at almost every turn, so it comes as no surprise that Lou is ready to move on.

So the spotlight in Chicago shifts to the search for a new manager. Many expect Hall of Fame 2B Ryne Sandberg to take over, as he's paid his dues managing in the Cubs minor league system for the past 4 years, working his way up from low A to the AAA Iowa Cubs. I've had the pleasure of seeing him manage several games at for the single A Peoria Chiefs, and have to say that I'm surprised at the great job he did working with the young players. That said, I really hope that he doesn't get the job. I am always of the belief that your franchises great players get nothing but trouble when they return to manage/coach their team. Too often, you're just setting yourself up to boo and ultimately fire one of your great players. With apologies to Cubs fans that might read this, I really don't see the Cubs being World Series contenders over the next few years, and in this day and age, no manager gets long to prove he's the right man for the job. I would expect the 2011 Cubs to be similar to the 2010 edition, so you've already got one down season for Ryno if he gets the job. It could be as soon as 2012, then, that you start to wonder about his job security. Ryno's been far too classy of a player and now manager to put him through that.

I do think the Cubs need to promote the guy, though, and would think making him the bench coach/manager in waiting is a good move. Some other names that have been floated are Joe Girardi, Joe Torre, Bob Brenly, Pat Listach and Freddi Gonzalez. I'd be shocked of Girardi leaves the Yankees for the Cubs -- even though he is an Illinois native and began his baseball career with the Cubs. Torre would be intriguing, and would be amenable to a shorter term deal, but the fact that he'd be replacing a retiree that is younger than he is to manage a team that doesn't appear to be WS ready -- well, that makes me skeptical. I don't know much about Listach, who currently coaches for the Nationals. Gonzalez is believed to be the man that will replace Bobby Cox in Atlanta.

That leaves Brenly, and I really believe he'd be a fine choice. He's better equipped to ride out some of the bad contracts as the team phases out some of its veteran players (Soriano, Zambrano, Ramirez) in favor of a younger team (Castro, Colvin, Wells). I think Ryno would have a great influence on these guys, and Brenly's no-nonsense, "Just play hard" attitude would help to teach them the right way to play like a big leaguer. A younger Piniella would likely have been better for them, but you sense that he came to Chicago thinking a title was almost assured and that he didn't have much to do besides sit on the bench and let it all come together. Not to suggest that he hasn't done a better job than many give him credit for -- winning the division two years in a row is an accomplishment that you can't really discredit. But I also don't think this is the same guy that managed Cinci to a title and turned the Mariners into perennial contenders.

But first things first, the Cardinals are in town. I expect the Cardinals to take 2 of 3, losing on Friday, then winning both weekend games. No matter what, it will be a great weekend for baseball.

As it often goes in New York, much ado about nothing.

The Yankees said their official goodbye to George Steinbrenner and Bob Sheppard last night, and as always, the Yankees do these things in a way few other teams can match. The ceremony was followed with a thrilling walk-off win as Nick Swisher delivered a game winning hit in the bottom of the ninth. Earlier in the day, New York papers made an issue out of the fact that none of the current or former Yankees players attended the funeral of Bob Sheppard, and have made a particularly big deal out of the fact that Derek Jeter did not attend the service as the team's representative.

I understand the point, and while I'm mildly surprised by it, this is just one of those things that proves that players in New York deal with media pressure that few other markets can match. Especially in the case of Jeter, you are a little surprised, because he's crafted a public persona that exudes class and he always seems to know the right thing to do. At the same time, we tend to forget that its not at all uncommon for people to deal with these types of situations in their own way, as Jeter and Joe Girardi both suggested before and after yesterday's game. So I agree that it is a little surprising to see the franchise that does ceremony so well not send at least one player to the funeral, I really don't see why its the big deal that it is being made out to be.

In the same article about Jeter, the point is made that the game was a fitting tribute to the Boss, but that it would have been even more perfect if Jeter had been the hero of the game. Personally, I think it was more fitting that Swisher was the hero, because he is a perfect metaphor for what has been so right about the latter half of the Steinbrenner reign and what was so off about the lowpoint in the 80's. For all the talk of the Yankees buying their championships, they have had their greatest success when the team is built around homegrown players and guys that were acquired through shrewd trades. You've got the core four players (Jeter, Posada, Pettitte and Rivera) along with other farm products like Cano and Gardner. There are the big names of A-Rod, Teixeira and Sabathia -- the Yankees have always signed big name players -- but its moves like Swisher that really make this a team that I root for. The same could be said for the Torre lead dynasty. Swisher, to some degree, reminds me a bit of Paul O'Neill. I don't mean to suggest that Swisher is as good as O'Neill was, but when the Yankees sent Roberto Kelly to Cinci for Paulie, O'Neill wasn't an every day player. He wasn't one for his first season or two with the Yankees, either. Swisher wasn't supposed to be one, but became one after an injury to Xavier Nady opened up more playing time.

Swisher has responded to playing in New York, and you can bet that the Boss would have had kind words for his play over the last season and a half. He's far from the best player on the team, but he's been as important to the Yankees success in 2009 and 2010 as any player out there.