Goodbye, Colby.

Looking back on it now, it seems like something that was inevitable. Colby Rasmus is an ex-Cardinal. To a certain degree, I think the Cardinals have made a bit of a mistake. Rasmus has issues, and had earned a fair bit of the ire that he's received from some corners of Cardinals nation. He's requested trades, and by many accounts, ignores the advice from the coaches that are paid to make him a better player in favor of the advice that his Dad (also his former high school coach). This has never sat well with TLR....and that is completely understandable. At the same time, it seems that La Russa has had his mind made up regarding Rasmus while he was still working his way up the minor league ladder.

Regardless, it isn't a stretch to say that Rasmus wasn't living up to expectations this year. His numbers have tumbled mightily after getting off to a good start, and he's started losing playing time to John Jay. He's one of those players that has so much natural talent that it can sometimes appear that he's loafing it in the outfield. Add to that a few dropped balls in some key situations, and you have a scenario that rarely plays well with a fan base that values hustle and "playing the game the right way."

So Rasmus leaves, along with relievers Brian Tallet, Trever Miller and minor leaguer P.J. Walters. The centerpiece of the players coming back is Edwin Jackson, an free agent to be who is in the midst of his best year in the majors. He'll be tough to resign, especially if he performs well now that he's moved over to the NL. The Cards also get relievers Octavio Dotel, Marc Rzepcynksi and former Cub Corey Patterson.

This deal does seem to make the Cardinals better for the short term. The offense hasn't had much trouble putting up runs, the rotation has been decent, but the bullpen has shown a propensity to blow a lead in close games. This allows Skip Schumaker to see a little more time in the outfielder, so in theory the infield defense should improve a bit (though with the personnel in place, it will be a minimal increase). The team also expects Allen Craig back from a rehab stint sometime in early August. Kyle McClellan will move back to the bullpen, and the rotation shouldn't suffer from the addition of Jackson. Rzepcynski will hopefully be an upgrade in the left handed reliever department, Dotel has closing experience (a role I hope he never fills in STL) and there are worse backup outfielders in the league than Patterson.

I have mixed emotions on the deal. On one hand, Colby wasn't looking like the player that we expected him to be. But at 24, it isn't like he's reached that point in his career where he settles in as a 'good' player rather than improving and becoming a great player. Last year, Ludwick was sent packing after an underwhelming and injury filled first half, and Jay faltered a bit down the stretch as he went from sub to starter. But now we're sure he's ready to handle things as the starting center fielder? Then again, the only season that we should be worried about here is 2011 -- we might well wish this trade has never happened a year from now, but if the Cardinals can use this move to get into the playoffs and hopefully make a run to the World Series, the trade of Rasmus will be nothing more than a footnote to the season.

Things are looking up.

Just a week ago, even the most optimistic Cardinals fan would have had trouble finding the silver lining to the Redbirds sluggish start to the season. The Cardinals were seemingly finding ways to lose games, and we had just witnessed perhaps the most heartbreaking instance yet -- Ryan Franklin blowing another save and Colby Rasmus turning the final out of the game into a game winning double for Miguel Tejada. Personally, I hang that one on Franklin...Rasmus has no excuse for not making that catch, but Franklin allowed two ducks with two outs. I don't completely disagree with Tony LaRussa's assertion that while Motte and Boggs are viable candidates to close in the future that they may not be any more ready for the task than Franklin is right now. But, I think I'd be a little more inclined to gamble on handing the job to Boggs to see what he can do.

After that loss, the Cardinals picked things up. They pounded the Giants in the series finale and then took 2 of 3 from the D'backs and are on the verge of sweeping the 4 game series with the Dodgers. We've also seen the bats wake up in a big way, which is very likely due to the return of Matt Holliday to the lineup. His recovery from adbominal surgery has been rather amazing, and with him back in the cleanup spot, the offense looks more like what we expected. Lance Berkman's bat has also woken up and he's hit 6 round trippers and driven in 12 runs over the last 7 days -- and is hitting .476 over that same stretch. Rasmus' bat has also continued to be hot as his average sits just below .400.

Of course, a week ago, I was saying it was far too early to hit the panic button, so the same caution has to be applied after a very good week. Both the Dodgers and the Diamondbacks are in the bottom 3 in ERA in the NL and are the two worst in homers allowed per 9 innings (although you could also point to the fact that Cardinal hitters do have something to do with those stats). The more encouraging stat is the fact that Cards have scored at least 6 runs in every game over the last 7 days, which includes a 13-8 loss to the D'backs -- the only loss in that span.

The upcoming week is a big one for the Redbirds...they return home to face the Nationals Tuesday through Thursday and then welcome the rival Reds to town for the first meeting of the year. There's no love lost between these teams, and I have a feeling that Johnny Gomes is going to find himself with a target on his back after the comments he made in response to Wainwright's injury. The Reds are currently 1.5 games ahead of the Cards and leading the NL Central. They figure to be the team to beat in the division, and this is just the first round of what promises to be a great season-long battle.

(Picture courtesy of stltoday.com, stats courtesy of fangraphs.com)

Uh Oh

If the first week is any indication, we're in for a long season. So far the Cardinals have been a mess....Starting pitching is just poor enough to lose, the closer has blown 2 out of 3 save chances, the mega star has hit into more double plays than he has driven in runs and the other super star missed the week due to an appendectomy. Not a good way to start a season in which you're already missing your co-ace due to Tommy John surgery. Indeed, it could be an agonizingly long season for the Redbirds.

Hitting the panic button on April 9 is foolish. It goes without saying that there is much baseball left to play, and there is reason to believe that this is just a team finding its legs a bit in the early going. But the Adrian Gonzalez-less Padres proved to be just as tough a match-up as they were last year, and while the Pirates aren't headed for October baseball, they are not the doormat that they have been in year's past. Still, posting a 2-4 record against these teams wasn't what even the most pessimistic fans expected.

The West Coast swing will be critical. Losing to the defending champs in extra innings isn't so much of a worry, but the way that the Cardinals lost is. First there was another blown save by Franklin, and that was followed up by some shoddy defensive play. They committed 3 errors, but none more costly than Albert's drop of Brian Tallet's throw that would have completed an inning-ending double play. It isn't a good idea to give a team more than 3 outs in an inning, and the Giants took advantage when Aaron Rowand's two out single drove in the winning run. This could have been a game that signaled the start of a turnaround for the Cards -- they had battled to stay in a game and scored more than 3 runs for the first time this season. This was a win that had the potential to carry over to the next couple of games and help the Cardinals right the ship, but instead it was another frustrating loss by a team that really should be better than this. Matt Holliday is supposed to return this weekend, so hopefully he can shake the effects of abdominal surgery quickly and help put a little punch back in the lineup. It's early, folks....not time to hit the panic button just yet, but the fact that we're mentioning the panic button this early into the season isn't a good sign.

There have been some bright spots early on.....

1. Cobly Rasmus - He's hitting .348 out of the two hole (and has an weighted average of .423). The walk rate is up and the strikeout rate is down. An even better sign? He's started every game this season and hit in the same spot in the lineup every game.
2. Allen Craig - Called on to help fill in for Holliday, Craig may have earned himself more playing time. He can fill in for Berkman in right and spell either corner infield spot if needed. He's driven in as many as Albert (4) in 8 fewer plate appearances, and has stolen 2 bases on top of that. His only hitting .238 (weighted average is .275), and aside from a propensity to strike out, he's been a plus for the birds.
3. Jaime Garcia - It's only one start, but striking out 9 while only walking 2 in a complete game shutout was a nice boost after the Cards had dropped their first two games of the season to the Padres. With his second start coming in spacious AT&T Park against a light hitting Giants offense, he might be able to post a second quality start. With Matt Cain starting for the Giants, getting a win will be difficult given the Cardinals' struggles on offense.

And some not-so-bright spots.....

1. Pujols - Hitting into double plays, committing errors, leaving runners on base. These aren't things you think of when you mention Albert's name, but that's what we've seen so far. Pujols is truly one of the all time greats, so as with the whole team, it is far too early to worry. Not even the best player in the game is immune to a cold streak, so the turnaround is coming. But right now -- tough to watch.
2. Ryan Franklin - Hardly a dominant closer on his best days, but two blown saves and an ERA of 6.00....not what you want from your closer. He's averaging 3 HR per 9 IP -- also a concern. It is very likely that LaRussa and Duncan are going to have to turn to another option if/when Franklin hits his annual late season slide -- if not long before.
3. The Offense - 3rd lowest number of runs scored in the majors (behind the 1-6 Rays and the 3-3 Dodgers -- although the Dodgers were postponed on Friday and have played one game less). They've produced 4 runs exactly once in 7 games, and that was last night's loss to the Giants. They are striking out more than they are walking and have the 3rd worst batting average in the NL. Switch to weighted batting average and this is the worst hitting team in the NL. Losing Holliday certainly hasn't helped, because no one's pitching to Albert. But then again, he hasn't done much with the pitches he's been able to hit.

Today is a new day, and the Cardinals can turn things around by beating Cain and the Giants. After they leave the Bay area, the Cardinals face the D'backs, who split two games with the Rockies and dropped a series to the Cubs before handing the Reds their first loss of the year last night. Arizona has the type of pitching that can make mediocre hitters look good, so if the Cards can take the next two from the Giants and head to the desert with a little confidence, things might look a bit better in a week's time.

(Stats courtesy of Fangraphs.com. Photo courtesy of stltoday.com.)

Time to look ahead

Not exactly breaking news to say that the Cardinals' season is over. If 3 straight losses to the Cubs don't signal the end in humiliating fashion, then I don't know what would. The way it is ending is not quite what I had envisioned -- nor I suppose what most experts envisioned. Some had tabbed the Reds to surprise and win the NL Central, but many of those same experts also picked the Cards for the Wild Card.

What's upsetting is this is a team that clearly has the talent to make a playoff run, and they just don't play up to their potential. When that happens, you start doing what Cubs fans have become famous for -- waiting for next year. The Cardinals future might be equally as uncertain as the Cards, too.

If I were GM, here's my list of priorities:

• The team may be in the market for a new manager. TLR has been taking it year to year for some time now, but this is the first time I've wondered if he'll come back or not -- and also whether I WANT him back. He's a hall of fame manager, and one of the greatest of the modern era if not all time. But, maybe he's finally reached the end of the line in St. Louis. The team certainly seems to have tuned him out, and with rumored friction with some of the young stars (Rasmus), might be time for a new voice. I'm not opposed to bringing in that new voice, but worry that Mozelik isn't the guy to find him. A bigger concern to me is the fact that if TLR hangs it up, it probably means that Dave Duncan is on his way out, too. Now, there certainly are other great pitching coaches out there, but Duncan is a true wizard and has more reclamation projects on his resume than anyone else.
• Pujols -- you have to get him signed to an extension this offseason. We, as a fan base, don't want to see what would happen if 2011 opens and talks are stalling.
• Role players. The team has guys that looked to be solid role players, but all of them seem to have gone in the tank at the same time. Brendan Ryan, Felipe Lopez, Nick Stavinoah....all have shown they have it in them to put up solid numbers, and all of them have had disappointing seasons. Plus, TLR relied too heavily on rookies such as Craig and John Jay. While they've given an indication that they are legit big leaguers, they just can't match the veteran presence -- such as what Ryan Ludwick brought to the table.
• A closer. I like Ryan Franklin, and he's been better than any of us had a right to expect. But -- he isn't a guy that is going to close for a World Series contender. It may be that one of the other arms in the bullpen will step up, but I think the team needs to look elsewhere. Perhaps Matt Capps, Brian Fuentes from the Twins will become available. Or, maybe the Twins would look to trade Joe Nathan as he rehabs his injury.
• Third Base -- We can't trust Freese to stay healthy. A third baseman with a little power and a decent average would do wonders for the offense, and give the team another option behind Pujols, Holliday and Rasmus.

I suppose the optimist -- which I try to be -- believes that a little retooling will do the trick. It might be, though, that some of the pieces that we thought were solid enough are little more than filler. It should be an interesting offseason to watch.

Where Did the Fight Go?

I had the best intentions of writing a post about the now infamous fight in Cincinnati last week, but the reality of life with a 6 month old child and 40+ hour a week job (not to mention being old and needing sleep) got in the way. With the extra few days of perspective, my viewpoint changes, and not really for the better.

The Cardinals finally looked like the team most expected them to be during that series versus the Reds. They were ticked at Brandon Phillips calling them "little bitches", and they set out to show him and his team why they were still the team to beat in the NL Central. It was a much anticipated series, and turned out to be a bit of a yawn. With sweep in hand, the Cards returned home to face the lowly Cubs and a roster that looked like it belonged in Des Moines. I was thinking sweep, or 2 of 3 at the very least.

Now that the Cards have dropped 2 of 3, I'm starting to become more and more convinced that this is a team destined to go out with a whimper once October rolls around -- assuming they even make it that far. For the second straight series, the Cardinals can only manage one win against the Cubs. Had the Redbirds shown any streak of consistency at all in 2010, I might chalk this up to the rivalry and the fact that these series against their biggest rival are about as close to meaningful baseball as the Cubs are going to see from here on out. We've seen this series after series with this year's Cardinals, though, and unless that mythical switch is out there just waiting to be thrown, we might be seeing a team falling far short of expectations. A shame, given that so many things are going right:

1. Wainwright is having his second straight Cy Young worthy campaign.
2. Pujols has turned things on and just became the only player in history to hit 30 HR in 10 straight seasons.
3. Matt Holliday is putting up numbers consistent with a guy who commanded huge money on the free agent market.
4. Jaime Garcia has more than made up for the departure of Joel Piniero and softened the injuries of Lohse and Penny.
5. Rookie Jon Jay has been raking and is an almost permanent fixture in the 2 hole.
6. Colby Rasmus still has some room to grow, but is clearly blossoming into one of the team's best players.
   

In spite of all of this, the Cards still find themselves trailing the Reds on 8/16. Why is that? You can point to some of the under-performers -- Ryan, Schumaker, Lopez, etc. Then there are injuries to guys like Freese, Lohse, Penny and (since traded) Ludwick. The big problem, though, is that the team doesn't seem to play with that "Win or Die" mentality that Tony LaRussa managed teams seem to carry. Tough to pinpoint a simple reason why that is missing, but if this team doesn't find its heart soon, then we'll be talking 2011 much sooner than any of us would have thought.

News and Notes - 6/15

As I mentioned earlier, its been a rough week for the Cardinals. They just finished a 1-5 West Coast road trip which saw them swept at the hands of the Dodgers and losers of 2 of 3 to the Diamondbacks -- including a heartbreaking walk-off loss in the finale on Sunday. The offense continues to be a bit less than what we had expected, as we all wonder when will Albert and Holliday get things rolling. NOTE: Neither has been terrible to date, but aren't producing to the level that we've become accustomed.

A couple of notes -

• Ryan Ludwick has been a bright spot of late on both offense and defense. He's driven in 15 RBI over the last 15 days and is hitting at .297. He fits Tony LaRussa's mindset perfectly, and seems to be at home almost anywhere in the order -- hitting 2nd a few games, then switching to 5th and even making an appearance as the cleanup hitter.
• Speaking of cleanup hitters -- Matt Holliday moved up to the 2 hole and went 2-4 with a base on balls and 2 runs scored. Don't expect this to be his regular slot in the lineup.
• Slightly scary moment during last night's win over the Mariners as Albert Pujols took a Jose Lopez throw off the ear hole of his batting helmet while trying to score on a ground ball. Albert stayed in the game, and it'll likely take more than that to move him to the bench for more than a routine day off.
• Adam Wainwright improved to 9-4 tossing 7 innings of 3 run ball while striking out 6. It was his 9th consecutive start with at least 6 Ks.
• Jeff Suppan makes his return tonight and will face off against M's lefty Ryan Rowland-Smith. Rowland-Smith is sitting at 0-5 with a 6.62 ERA. Suppan's time with the Brewers was somewhat less than successful as he comes with an 0-2 record and a 7.84 ERA. He only started 2 for the Brew Crew and totalled 31 innings pitched before being released on 6/7. The Cards are hurting for starters at the moment, but if all goes well, Suppan is in line to get a second start against Oakland this weekend.
• LaRussa's lineup shuffle worked for at least one night as the Cards put up 9 runs against the Mariners. The Holliday-Pujols-Ludwick combo reached base 10 times and drove in 6 runs. Colby Rasmus homered to drive in another 2 and rookie David Freese drove in the other. A different look is certain for tonight with a lefty on the mound.