Goodbye, Colby.

Looking back on it now, it seems like something that was inevitable. Colby Rasmus is an ex-Cardinal. To a certain degree, I think the Cardinals have made a bit of a mistake. Rasmus has issues, and had earned a fair bit of the ire that he's received from some corners of Cardinals nation. He's requested trades, and by many accounts, ignores the advice from the coaches that are paid to make him a better player in favor of the advice that his Dad (also his former high school coach). This has never sat well with TLR....and that is completely understandable. At the same time, it seems that La Russa has had his mind made up regarding Rasmus while he was still working his way up the minor league ladder.

Regardless, it isn't a stretch to say that Rasmus wasn't living up to expectations this year. His numbers have tumbled mightily after getting off to a good start, and he's started losing playing time to John Jay. He's one of those players that has so much natural talent that it can sometimes appear that he's loafing it in the outfield. Add to that a few dropped balls in some key situations, and you have a scenario that rarely plays well with a fan base that values hustle and "playing the game the right way."

So Rasmus leaves, along with relievers Brian Tallet, Trever Miller and minor leaguer P.J. Walters. The centerpiece of the players coming back is Edwin Jackson, an free agent to be who is in the midst of his best year in the majors. He'll be tough to resign, especially if he performs well now that he's moved over to the NL. The Cards also get relievers Octavio Dotel, Marc Rzepcynksi and former Cub Corey Patterson.

This deal does seem to make the Cardinals better for the short term. The offense hasn't had much trouble putting up runs, the rotation has been decent, but the bullpen has shown a propensity to blow a lead in close games. This allows Skip Schumaker to see a little more time in the outfielder, so in theory the infield defense should improve a bit (though with the personnel in place, it will be a minimal increase). The team also expects Allen Craig back from a rehab stint sometime in early August. Kyle McClellan will move back to the bullpen, and the rotation shouldn't suffer from the addition of Jackson. Rzepcynski will hopefully be an upgrade in the left handed reliever department, Dotel has closing experience (a role I hope he never fills in STL) and there are worse backup outfielders in the league than Patterson.

I have mixed emotions on the deal. On one hand, Colby wasn't looking like the player that we expected him to be. But at 24, it isn't like he's reached that point in his career where he settles in as a 'good' player rather than improving and becoming a great player. Last year, Ludwick was sent packing after an underwhelming and injury filled first half, and Jay faltered a bit down the stretch as he went from sub to starter. But now we're sure he's ready to handle things as the starting center fielder? Then again, the only season that we should be worried about here is 2011 -- we might well wish this trade has never happened a year from now, but if the Cardinals can use this move to get into the playoffs and hopefully make a run to the World Series, the trade of Rasmus will be nothing more than a footnote to the season.

Brain Junk - 5/18

Several random thoughts that I've had in mind but that did't seem to warrant a lengthy post.....

• I decided when my Grandfather passed away in January that one of the things I was going to do to honor him was to "be a Cardinal fan" for 2011. It isn't a stretch -- I am a Cardinal fan, but typically would answer the question of favorite team with "Yankees". While I'm less invested in these Yanks than I have been any team since the mid 80's, it isn't like I just flipped the switch and dumped the team from my sports consciousness. But this current Posada/Jeter mess is just yet another example of what's become harder and harder to like about the team. My original plan was to write something about how tough it is when your longtime favorites no longer live up to the image you have of them. That has been both Jeter and Posada this year, and things came to a head with Jorge on Saturday when he asked out of the lineup. Rather than try to write something, I'll direct you to this article by Matthew Leach, which is far better than anything I could come up with. I couldn't help think of Ozzie Smith when I read this. I fondly recall the 1996 playoffs, mainly as the year that the newest Yankee dynasty was born, but the Cardinals were also one win away from treating me to a World Series featuring my two favorite teams. Watching that series very nearly rekindled my passion for the Cards the way the Yankees victory did my passion for the Bronx Bombers (before you say "fairweather fan", I'll remind you that this was still early days after the '94 strike, and it took a while for me to come back). I had actually lost some of my love for the Cards as TLR ran Ozzie out of town in favor of Royce Clayton. Didn't matter that it was time...this was Ozzie, and I STILL revert back to my 10 year old self at the mere mention of the man's name. I'm quite a bit older now and the attachment to Jeter and Posada is different, but it is still sad to see them both decline as they have. I still think Jeter makes something of the season, but Posada seems past done.
• Ok, a little longer than I intended....So just when I think the Cardinals are looking like a contender in the NL, they go to Cicni and get swept. The Reds took a bit to find themselves, but they seem to be rolling now. And as the weather heats up, so do their bats....they have the potential to be a very formidable team -- especially if they make a few solid moves at the deadline. Walt Jocketty has a habit of making shrewd moves at the right time.
• Speaking of the Reds, I think this has the potential to become one of the best rivalries in baseball this year. Dusty Baker and TLR don't like each other and that has definitely spilled over onto the field. There seems to be some little extra curricular thing that pops up every time they play. Hopefully it doesn't turn ugly like the fisticuffs last summer, but there's no doubt that there will be an abundance of drama.
• Slight diversion from baseball....How much fun was it watching the Bulls blow out the Heat on Sunday? Loved every second of it. I still think the Heat win the series, but definitely rooting hard for the Bulls.
• I've referred to the Cardinals as contenders in a few posts now. If that is to be believed, then something needs to be done to address the defense. I think some of it is just bad luck, but the fact remains that they allow more unearned runs all but one or two other teams. That is never a recipe for success.
• Has Tony LaRussa ever met an outfielder that he didn't think was better suited playing 2B? But, good to get Craig's bat in the lineup.
• Interleague play is almost here. I used to love it, but now my usual response is just "meh". I really think the novelty has worn off. For all the excitement of a team like the Cubs making their first trip to Fenway in over 90 years, or the Yankees coming to Wrigley for only the second time since the 1940's (didn't look that up, might even be 30's...yes, sometimes I'm too lazy for my own good), most of these series are of the ho hum variety. Even the cross town/cross state rivalries seem watered down. It'd be one thing if you had a situation where all the teams involved were at least mediocre. I really think MLB needs to cut the geographic rivalries down to one series per year. Or, given that you'll never convince an owner that it is good to give up the gate for those games, make it a 4 game series with 2 home games each. And then that's it for the year. Sure we'll still be stuck with that classic Padres/Mariners grudge match, but at least you restore some of the novelty to the event for the ones that fans do care about.

That's all the time I'll waste for today. Thanks for reading....

Vanquish the Cubs, Bring on the Reds

More time passed since my last post than I had intended, and the outlook has changed considerably since then. With my last post, Mitchell Boggs had just taken the closer reigns from Ryan Franklin, and the Cardinals were just starting to show some signs of life. As it stands today, they are atop the NL Central (tallest midget, some would say) and at times look like a serious contender in the NL. Boggs has given way to Eduardo Sanchez as the "head" of the closer committee, although we've also seen Trever Miller and Fernando Salas close things out.

We've also seen the first installment of the I-55 rivalry for 2011 - a time that is always a little tense in my household (as my wife is a huge Cubs fan). The Cards took 2 of 3, which -- and I don't mean this as anymore than a statement of fact in terms of the Cubs -- is the minimum you'd expect given the start of both teams. The sad fact of the matter, for Cubs fans, is that the team just isn't very good. There is some hope for the future as the Cubs continue to fill the gaps with young talent from the farm system. Geo Soto and Starlin Castro have both settled in as fixtures in the lineup, and while it is too early to proclaim him the real deal just yet, Darwin Barney is looking like the type of player that might hold down 2B for a couple of years. Tyler Colvin has struggled to start the year, and may earn a trip back to AAA Iowa, but playing behind the likes of Alfonso Soriano, Kosuke Fukudome and Carlos Pena means that either ineffectiveness or injury is likely going to give you a shot sometime soon. The young pitchers are also starting to gel a bit -- Samardzija is starting to develop something useful besides his fastball and Andy Cashner looks like a top 3 starter (and is getting closer to coming off the DL). So while 2011 looks like another "wait for next year" type of season, the tide may be turning.

Of course, you can't talk about the series in Chicago without mentioning "The Hug". During batting practice prior to the first game of the series, Cubs GM Jim Hendry and Pujols greeted each other with a hug.

Many a hopeful Cubs fan decided that this was just the latest sign that Pujols would ditch the Cardinals to sign with the Cubs. The Cubs also have several big contracts coming off the books and would be able to offer the huge contract that Pujols is looking for. It would certainly be a coup for the Cubs to sign the megastar player away from their rivals, but this would be a terrible move on several fronts.

First off, Pujols isn't going to the Cubs for any less than he's demanding of the Cards. You needn't look any further than left field at Wrigley to understand why you don't give a player in his 30's a lengthy free agent deal. Plus, with all of the contracts coming off the books, the Cubs are going to have a few holes to fill. Even if Pujols took money over than winning, who are you putting at 3rd? Right Field? What about the rotation? Obviously, I'm far from unbiased, but I really don't see it happening, and if it does, I think it would be yet another signal that Cubs management just doesn't get it.

The Cardinals left Chicago and rolled into Cincinnati ready to take on the Reds. The Reds have been a bit of an enigma this season. They started out the season looking like a powerhouse, then came back to earth. But with Cueto and Bailey back in the rotation and Scott Rolen returning to face his former team, the Reds are poised to take the lead in the NL Central if they can sweep the Cards. Friday's game was one that has become typical of this rivalry as the Cards jumped out to the early lead only to having the Reds continue to hang around until Joey Votto's walk off single in the 10th. The remaining two games in this series should prove to be equally as dramatic.

Things are looking up.

Just a week ago, even the most optimistic Cardinals fan would have had trouble finding the silver lining to the Redbirds sluggish start to the season. The Cardinals were seemingly finding ways to lose games, and we had just witnessed perhaps the most heartbreaking instance yet -- Ryan Franklin blowing another save and Colby Rasmus turning the final out of the game into a game winning double for Miguel Tejada. Personally, I hang that one on Franklin...Rasmus has no excuse for not making that catch, but Franklin allowed two ducks with two outs. I don't completely disagree with Tony LaRussa's assertion that while Motte and Boggs are viable candidates to close in the future that they may not be any more ready for the task than Franklin is right now. But, I think I'd be a little more inclined to gamble on handing the job to Boggs to see what he can do.

After that loss, the Cardinals picked things up. They pounded the Giants in the series finale and then took 2 of 3 from the D'backs and are on the verge of sweeping the 4 game series with the Dodgers. We've also seen the bats wake up in a big way, which is very likely due to the return of Matt Holliday to the lineup. His recovery from adbominal surgery has been rather amazing, and with him back in the cleanup spot, the offense looks more like what we expected. Lance Berkman's bat has also woken up and he's hit 6 round trippers and driven in 12 runs over the last 7 days -- and is hitting .476 over that same stretch. Rasmus' bat has also continued to be hot as his average sits just below .400.

Of course, a week ago, I was saying it was far too early to hit the panic button, so the same caution has to be applied after a very good week. Both the Dodgers and the Diamondbacks are in the bottom 3 in ERA in the NL and are the two worst in homers allowed per 9 innings (although you could also point to the fact that Cardinal hitters do have something to do with those stats). The more encouraging stat is the fact that Cards have scored at least 6 runs in every game over the last 7 days, which includes a 13-8 loss to the D'backs -- the only loss in that span.

The upcoming week is a big one for the Redbirds...they return home to face the Nationals Tuesday through Thursday and then welcome the rival Reds to town for the first meeting of the year. There's no love lost between these teams, and I have a feeling that Johnny Gomes is going to find himself with a target on his back after the comments he made in response to Wainwright's injury. The Reds are currently 1.5 games ahead of the Cards and leading the NL Central. They figure to be the team to beat in the division, and this is just the first round of what promises to be a great season-long battle.

(Picture courtesy of stltoday.com, stats courtesy of fangraphs.com)

Personnel Matters

Something that seems to impact the fan much more than anyone else involved with a sports franchise is the subject of player movement. Every fan has her or his favorite player(s) and when that guy leaves your team, it can be almost like losing a family member. Sometimes it is a case where a player no longer fits with a teams plans. Other times, it is the team that doesn't fit the players plans. Or it might be that he is too old to keep playing at a level where it is worth putting in the work. Or maybe it is the club telling him he is too old. Regardless of the situation, it is a topic that is hitting close to home for two of my favorite teams at the moment.

I chose "A Spot of Red in Cubland" as the title for my blog because I'm a Cardinals fan that lives in the Chicago suburbs. But I also liked it because it made a subtle reference to my favorite team in the English Premier League, Liverpool FC (sometimes referred to as "the Reds" because of their red uniforms)...a team and sport that has come to dominate my sports interests during the offseason in baseball.

It is Liverpool where I take us for the first "crisis" involving a player. A quick primer on how player movement works for those of you that don't follow the EPL. For the most part, player movement is restricted to the transfer windows. The window starts at the end of one season (usually mid-May) and runs through August 31st. A mid-season window also opens for the month of January. During the window, teams are able to bid on players whether they are under contract or not. If the player is currently out of contract, then the club only needs to agree to terms of a contract with the player. More often, the player will still have a valid contract, so first the front offices of two clubs need to agree on a transfer fee, and then the club buying the player needs to agree to terms on a new contract for the player. There are variations on this, of course, and would take much more space than I want to use to cover, so for now I'll just refer you here for a more detailed breakdown.

Liverpool is a storied club in English Football, but things have not gone well after the club finished 2nd to Manchester United in the 2008-09 season. Instead of building on the promise of that campaign the club saw its two American owners (Tom Hicks - the guy who also tried to bury the Texas Rangers - and George Gillette) saddle the club with a huge amount of debt. Instead of using the proceeds from the sale of some top players to fund the signings of suitable replacements, the cash went to pay down the debt. Again, the topic would take a lot more space than I intend to spend to do it justice, so you can read about Liverpool FC's history here. A season and a half of sub-par football followed, a popular but somewhat poloarizing manager was "sacked" and eventually the club was sold to New England Sports Ventures, the owner of the Boston Red Sox. Early season struggles left the new owners with no choice but to replace new manager, Roy Hodgson, with LFC legend Kenny Dalglish. After a few rough matches, Dalglish got the team rolling, and the team's best striker, Fernando Torres, seemed to be regaining the form that had been largely missing for over a year as the player battled injury and was forced to play in a style that clearly didn't suit his strengths. Three straight wins, and fans were seeing the club climb the table (standings). The club also looked to be bolstering their attack by adding striker Luis Suarez from Dutch club Ajax. But news of Suarez' signing was followed by rumors that EPL rivals Chelsea had placed a bid on Torres that had been turned down. This was met with plea from Torres for LFC to at least negotiate with Chelsea.

Liverpool fans were outraged. How could "El Nino" want to leave just as things were turning around? He had professed his love for the team, for the fans and even said that he was proud that his kids would be raised as "Scousers" - a term used to describe someone from Liverpool. Now, he was looking every bit the mercenary as he not only wanted to leave, but wanted to join a West London club that has seen much success in recent years, but was short on the type of true history that is the source of pride for many Liverpool fans. Again, for those of you that don't follow the EPL, Chelsea would be like the late 90's Orioles or the '97 Marlins. An owner (Russian billionaire Roman Abromowich) that will spare no expense to build a winner, and splashes out huge sums of cash in the process. Notice I didn't compare this to the Yankees -- the reason being that the Yankees, for all their financial muscle, have been the "Damn Yankees" for much of the last 100 years.

So off Torres went, but the new owners proved they aren't like the old owners. In addition to Suarez, LFC also brought in Newcastle United phenom Andy Carroll. All of a sudden, the Reds were looking like not only a team that had averted disaster, but had also gotten a bit younger in the process. Torres is nearing 27, and the clock is ticking on his days of being a top striker. Both Suarez and Carroll are in their early 20's. Ironically, Torres' first match for Chelsea was against his old team, but the storybook quality of the tale ends there -- for Torres. Liverpool turned in one of their most resilient performances of the season, and scored the game's only goal just after Torres was taken off in the second half. That Torres has yet to play an "El Nino" type game wearing Chelsea blue is a comfort to LFC fans, but the pain still remains that a beloved player didn't want to stay our club. In the weeks since his departure, Torres has explained his reasoning, and shown some respect for Liverpool -- both the club and the fans. But his words and respect will never change the fact that he is now the villain.

Turning to the world of baseball, spring training is officially underway. While this is typically the time of year where I start dreaming of sunshine, warm weather and Opening Day, there is also a sense of dread surrounding the Cardinals. After a disappointing 2010 campaign, the team is looking to rebound. The rotation looks to be as good, if not better -- Wainwright and Carpenter are still there as co-aces, 2010's surprising rookie Jamie Garcia looks to build on a great season and Jake Westbrook was resigned to be that solid #3 or #4 starter. If Kyle Lohse can be simply serviceable, this rotation might be as good as any rotation outside of Philadelphia, where they can boast 3 1/2 aces (Halladay, Lee, Oswalt, Hammels), or San Francisco, where the strength of the rotation carried the Giants to a title. The lineup looks to be improved as well....Lance Berkman comes in to add some firepower to the 1-2 punch of Pujols and Holliday. Ryan Theriot may not be the most exciting player in baseball, but he's the perfect type of player for a Tony LaRussa team. Colby Rasmus is another year older, and hopefully will continue to improve (and be allowed to improve by TLR).

But that cloud hanging over the Cardinals as Spring Training opens is Albert Pujols' next contract. He won't be a free agent until after the 2011 season, but there's little doubt that many of the club's moves over the last few years have been to convince Albert that the Cardinals are committed to building a good team around him. The problem with taking that tact, however, is now apparent...the club has big money invested in Holliday and Carpenter. Wainwright is nearing a time when he'll need to be resigned, and the farm system, while improving, has yet to become the NL version of the Minnesota Twins, where you simply plug in a guy from AAA and never see the difference.

Pujols is the best player in the game, and the Cardinals have used that image to sell a lot of tickets over the last 10 years. More than any other player in baseball he IS the face of his franchise, and now that we're past his self-imposed deadline, he claims there will be no negotiations regarding an extension until after this season is in the books. He wants to be paid like the best player in the game, and is using the A-Rod deal as his model.....$300 mil over 10 years is what it will take. The Cardinals have made offers and if reports are to be believed, they are giving Albert a choice between the average annual value of the contract and the length of the contract.

Intellectually, I understand the Cardinals' position....Pujols is 31, and in the post-steroid era it is rare to see a player get better as time passes. Pujols' is a "leave it all on the field" type of player, and I can't help but think of Larry Bird during the last few years of his career when I imagine what Pujols will be when he's my age (38 as I'm writing this). In truth, while he's still putting up numbers that seem to cement his spot among the game's legends, I think most Cardinals fans recognize that he has slipped slightly as he's moved into his 30's. So you can understand why the Cards' brass wouldn't want to tie up that kind of money over that long of a period.

I can also understand why Pujols is holding firm to his desire to be paid like the best in the game. How many dollars has Bill DeWitt, Jr. made on Pujols' back? When Pujols comes to bat, the stadium stops. Everyone watches. Pujols tshirts and jerseys outnumber those of other players at least 2-1. Most don't expect him to really sign somewhere else, but the fact that we've passed the deadline and didn't even see signs of progress has me preparing for the day when Albert is playing somewhere else. In my heart, I don't believe it will happen, but you just never know how these things will turn out. I never thought Fernando Torres would leave Liverpool for Chelsea, but look how that turned out. I still think something gets done during the season. As the calendar turns to May, I think Mozelik calls Pujols' agent, floats a few numbers, finds the common ground, and the deal gets done. Ok, maybe "hope" belongs in there more than "think".

Finally, we also saw the retirement of Jim Edmonds last week. He's been gone from the Cardinals for a few years now, but had signed a minor league deal before spring training in hopes of earning a bench spot. As things got underway, he found that he simply could not be the player he wanted to be, and decided that it was time. I'm glad that he is able to retire as a Cardinal. To be honest, during most of his tenure in red, I was more focused on my other favorite team (the Yankees), but I've always marveled at Edmonds' knack for stepping up when the stakes were at their highest.

So for now, I'm simply looking forward to the season. I'll worry about Pujols when it's time. I'll count the days until that first spring training game is shown on MLB.tv, prepare for my annual fantasy baseball draft and look forward to the start of another season. I'll also spend my weekend mornings keeping up with my soccer addiction and hope that Liverpool can continue their recent form and possibly rise as high as 4th (which would qualify them for the Champions League), and pettily hope that it comes at the expense of Chelsea and their new #9. I'm tired of worrying about this player or that player and where he'll be next season, so I'll just do the one thing that always gets you through the heartbreak....I'll enjoy the games.

Time to look ahead

Not exactly breaking news to say that the Cardinals' season is over. If 3 straight losses to the Cubs don't signal the end in humiliating fashion, then I don't know what would. The way it is ending is not quite what I had envisioned -- nor I suppose what most experts envisioned. Some had tabbed the Reds to surprise and win the NL Central, but many of those same experts also picked the Cards for the Wild Card.

What's upsetting is this is a team that clearly has the talent to make a playoff run, and they just don't play up to their potential. When that happens, you start doing what Cubs fans have become famous for -- waiting for next year. The Cardinals future might be equally as uncertain as the Cards, too.

If I were GM, here's my list of priorities:

• The team may be in the market for a new manager. TLR has been taking it year to year for some time now, but this is the first time I've wondered if he'll come back or not -- and also whether I WANT him back. He's a hall of fame manager, and one of the greatest of the modern era if not all time. But, maybe he's finally reached the end of the line in St. Louis. The team certainly seems to have tuned him out, and with rumored friction with some of the young stars (Rasmus), might be time for a new voice. I'm not opposed to bringing in that new voice, but worry that Mozelik isn't the guy to find him. A bigger concern to me is the fact that if TLR hangs it up, it probably means that Dave Duncan is on his way out, too. Now, there certainly are other great pitching coaches out there, but Duncan is a true wizard and has more reclamation projects on his resume than anyone else.
• Pujols -- you have to get him signed to an extension this offseason. We, as a fan base, don't want to see what would happen if 2011 opens and talks are stalling.
• Role players. The team has guys that looked to be solid role players, but all of them seem to have gone in the tank at the same time. Brendan Ryan, Felipe Lopez, Nick Stavinoah....all have shown they have it in them to put up solid numbers, and all of them have had disappointing seasons. Plus, TLR relied too heavily on rookies such as Craig and John Jay. While they've given an indication that they are legit big leaguers, they just can't match the veteran presence -- such as what Ryan Ludwick brought to the table.
• A closer. I like Ryan Franklin, and he's been better than any of us had a right to expect. But -- he isn't a guy that is going to close for a World Series contender. It may be that one of the other arms in the bullpen will step up, but I think the team needs to look elsewhere. Perhaps Matt Capps, Brian Fuentes from the Twins will become available. Or, maybe the Twins would look to trade Joe Nathan as he rehabs his injury.
• Third Base -- We can't trust Freese to stay healthy. A third baseman with a little power and a decent average would do wonders for the offense, and give the team another option behind Pujols, Holliday and Rasmus.

I suppose the optimist -- which I try to be -- believes that a little retooling will do the trick. It might be, though, that some of the pieces that we thought were solid enough are little more than filler. It should be an interesting offseason to watch.

Good Teams Beat the Teams They Are Supposed to Beat

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, a World Series contender is supposed to beat the bottom feeders, not play to their level. If the Cardinals end up on the outside looking in when the playoffs open, they'll have no one to blame but themselves. Yet again, we see a team that was supposed to be the class of the NL Central drop two games to a team they should be taking 2 of 3 from (if not sweeping). No disrespect meant to the Pirates -- they have some intriguing young talent for the first time in what seems like forever. But, the Cardinals have a payroll that suggests contender, they've signed free agents thinking it enhanced their standing as contenders, and they've made late season trades that are consistent with moves a contender would make. Yet here we sit on 8/25 and they are 3.5 games behind the Reds for the NL Central lead and are 1 game out of the NL Wild Card. Obviously, plenty of time left, but you gotta get it going. NOW. This season won't be considered successful in St. Louis without a solid showing in the playoffs.

Here's a quick look at what's at stake for other NL playoff contenders:

Reds - The season's a success at this point -- no matter what happens. That said, Walt Jockety has done a nice job of mixing veteran players with the young talent that the Reds had developed. This team has really taken on the challenge of being a power in the NL -- not just a surprise.

Braves - Many tabbed them to have a good season, and they've delivered. Winning one last division for the retiring Bobby Cox would be a fitting end to one of the greatest managerial careers in the history of the game. I don't see them letting go of a playoff spot at this point, but Philly always seems to make a late charge, so they may end up the Wild Card. Missing the playoffs is always considered disappointing for a team with Atlanta's recent history, but would be especially painful after the season they've had so far.

Phillies - While currently on a 3 game losing streak, the Phillies are starting to play like the team that many expected them to be when 2010 opened. They are currently tied atop the Wild Card standings, but are only 2.5 out of the division lead. Outside of the Yankees, there probably isn't another team in baseball that will see more negative press for missing the playoffs. If/when they make it to October baseball, they'll be a tough out for anyone with a rotation of Halladay, Oswalt and Hamels.

Padres - They've been the surprise team of the year, and they just keep rolling. Their pitching is as good as anyone's despite the fact that it doesn't have the name recognition. Their offense isn't as feared as other teams', but they excel at getting the key hits when they matter. A nice playoff run, and Adrian Gonzalez could be a full fledged star -- not to mention one step closer to being a former Padre. It'd be disappointing, and a little surprising, to see them lose their 6 game lead at this point, but the season is a huge success simply because they played well enough to hang onto A-Gon and Heath Bell all season -- players many predicted would be gone long before the non-waiver trading deadline.

Giants - The division is a longshot at this point, but they're tied for the Wild Card. Buster Posey has had a monster season, and could easily end up winning Rookie of the Year, which would be quite a feat considering the great play we've seen from rookies in 2010. Their big guns in the rotation haven't been as good as expected, but you can't count out a team that can go into a short series with Lincecum and Cain pitching the first two games.