Vanquish the Cubs, Bring on the Reds

More time passed since my last post than I had intended, and the outlook has changed considerably since then. With my last post, Mitchell Boggs had just taken the closer reigns from Ryan Franklin, and the Cardinals were just starting to show some signs of life. As it stands today, they are atop the NL Central (tallest midget, some would say) and at times look like a serious contender in the NL. Boggs has given way to Eduardo Sanchez as the "head" of the closer committee, although we've also seen Trever Miller and Fernando Salas close things out.

We've also seen the first installment of the I-55 rivalry for 2011 - a time that is always a little tense in my household (as my wife is a huge Cubs fan). The Cards took 2 of 3, which -- and I don't mean this as anymore than a statement of fact in terms of the Cubs -- is the minimum you'd expect given the start of both teams. The sad fact of the matter, for Cubs fans, is that the team just isn't very good. There is some hope for the future as the Cubs continue to fill the gaps with young talent from the farm system. Geo Soto and Starlin Castro have both settled in as fixtures in the lineup, and while it is too early to proclaim him the real deal just yet, Darwin Barney is looking like the type of player that might hold down 2B for a couple of years. Tyler Colvin has struggled to start the year, and may earn a trip back to AAA Iowa, but playing behind the likes of Alfonso Soriano, Kosuke Fukudome and Carlos Pena means that either ineffectiveness or injury is likely going to give you a shot sometime soon. The young pitchers are also starting to gel a bit -- Samardzija is starting to develop something useful besides his fastball and Andy Cashner looks like a top 3 starter (and is getting closer to coming off the DL). So while 2011 looks like another "wait for next year" type of season, the tide may be turning.

Of course, you can't talk about the series in Chicago without mentioning "The Hug". During batting practice prior to the first game of the series, Cubs GM Jim Hendry and Pujols greeted each other with a hug.

Many a hopeful Cubs fan decided that this was just the latest sign that Pujols would ditch the Cardinals to sign with the Cubs. The Cubs also have several big contracts coming off the books and would be able to offer the huge contract that Pujols is looking for. It would certainly be a coup for the Cubs to sign the megastar player away from their rivals, but this would be a terrible move on several fronts.

First off, Pujols isn't going to the Cubs for any less than he's demanding of the Cards. You needn't look any further than left field at Wrigley to understand why you don't give a player in his 30's a lengthy free agent deal. Plus, with all of the contracts coming off the books, the Cubs are going to have a few holes to fill. Even if Pujols took money over than winning, who are you putting at 3rd? Right Field? What about the rotation? Obviously, I'm far from unbiased, but I really don't see it happening, and if it does, I think it would be yet another signal that Cubs management just doesn't get it.

The Cardinals left Chicago and rolled into Cincinnati ready to take on the Reds. The Reds have been a bit of an enigma this season. They started out the season looking like a powerhouse, then came back to earth. But with Cueto and Bailey back in the rotation and Scott Rolen returning to face his former team, the Reds are poised to take the lead in the NL Central if they can sweep the Cards. Friday's game was one that has become typical of this rivalry as the Cards jumped out to the early lead only to having the Reds continue to hang around until Joey Votto's walk off single in the 10th. The remaining two games in this series should prove to be equally as dramatic.

Revisiting the NL Playoff Picture

As we head into the final week of the 2010 regular season, I thought it might be worthwhile to revisit a post from a couple of weeks ago... In that post, I bemoaned the fact that the Cardinals weren't able to do the one thing that is required of all good/great teams -- beat up on the little guys. The Cardinals have been terrible against "lesser" competition, and in the time since I wrote that post, they've only gotten worst. You might not realize it, but they've posted the worst record in the NL since the All Star break. Of course, on weekends when they do play a team that still has a shot at October, they surprise by taking 2 of 3. Then they play the Cubs and get swept. And thus you have the frustration of the 2010 season as a Cardinals fan.

But, my intent here is to revisit the teams I talked about in that previous post -- the Padres, the Giants, the Reds, the Phillies and the Braves. Since they've put themselves squarely in the hunt, I'll also touch on the Rockies.

Let's start with the Phillies.....Back in June, it looked like they wouldn't even make the playoffs, but as they have the last several years, they turned on the jets at the right time, and basically wrapped up the division with their recent sweep of the Braves. They head into the playoffs with a rotation that starts with Roys Halladay and Oswalt followed by Cole Hammels. Yeah, they have a great shot at reaching their 3rd consecutive World Series.

The Braves have slipped a bit since my last post. They still have a lead in the Wild Card race, but the 3 teams in contention for the NL West are still in the mix. I think the season is a disappointment for the Braves if they don't make it as the Wild Card, and personally, I would love to see them make the World Series and send off Bobby Cox in style (provided they don't have to go through the Yankees to do that).

The NL West remains the last compelling race in any division in baseball. The Padres decided to quit winning and saw a 6+ game lead evaporate. Since that time, they've spent days alternating with the Giants for the division lead. The Padres play a Cinci team that may be resting stars for the post-season and then welcome the Cubs, who have played better under interim manager Mike Quade. The Giants get the Rockies and then the Diamondbacks. Then the two teams square off in San Fran, and just might have the division and a spot in the playoffs on the line.

Unless of course the Rockies spoil everything by getting back in the groove after stumbling a bit against the D'backs. Troy Tulowitzki has had a September to remember and has been clubbing home runs at an unconscious pace. He's cemented his spot as the premier short stop in the NL, and might just earn a spot in the MVP voting if he can help the Rockies turn October into "Rock"tober.

The Reds, of course, have things basically wrapped up as the Cards are starting to give time to their September callups. Dusty Baker worked magic with the 2003 Cubs, and may be improving on that story with the 2010 Reds.

It is going to be a fun October.

Good Teams Beat the Teams They Are Supposed to Beat

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, a World Series contender is supposed to beat the bottom feeders, not play to their level. If the Cardinals end up on the outside looking in when the playoffs open, they'll have no one to blame but themselves. Yet again, we see a team that was supposed to be the class of the NL Central drop two games to a team they should be taking 2 of 3 from (if not sweeping). No disrespect meant to the Pirates -- they have some intriguing young talent for the first time in what seems like forever. But, the Cardinals have a payroll that suggests contender, they've signed free agents thinking it enhanced their standing as contenders, and they've made late season trades that are consistent with moves a contender would make. Yet here we sit on 8/25 and they are 3.5 games behind the Reds for the NL Central lead and are 1 game out of the NL Wild Card. Obviously, plenty of time left, but you gotta get it going. NOW. This season won't be considered successful in St. Louis without a solid showing in the playoffs.

Here's a quick look at what's at stake for other NL playoff contenders:

Reds - The season's a success at this point -- no matter what happens. That said, Walt Jockety has done a nice job of mixing veteran players with the young talent that the Reds had developed. This team has really taken on the challenge of being a power in the NL -- not just a surprise.

Braves - Many tabbed them to have a good season, and they've delivered. Winning one last division for the retiring Bobby Cox would be a fitting end to one of the greatest managerial careers in the history of the game. I don't see them letting go of a playoff spot at this point, but Philly always seems to make a late charge, so they may end up the Wild Card. Missing the playoffs is always considered disappointing for a team with Atlanta's recent history, but would be especially painful after the season they've had so far.

Phillies - While currently on a 3 game losing streak, the Phillies are starting to play like the team that many expected them to be when 2010 opened. They are currently tied atop the Wild Card standings, but are only 2.5 out of the division lead. Outside of the Yankees, there probably isn't another team in baseball that will see more negative press for missing the playoffs. If/when they make it to October baseball, they'll be a tough out for anyone with a rotation of Halladay, Oswalt and Hamels.

Padres - They've been the surprise team of the year, and they just keep rolling. Their pitching is as good as anyone's despite the fact that it doesn't have the name recognition. Their offense isn't as feared as other teams', but they excel at getting the key hits when they matter. A nice playoff run, and Adrian Gonzalez could be a full fledged star -- not to mention one step closer to being a former Padre. It'd be disappointing, and a little surprising, to see them lose their 6 game lead at this point, but the season is a huge success simply because they played well enough to hang onto A-Gon and Heath Bell all season -- players many predicted would be gone long before the non-waiver trading deadline.

Giants - The division is a longshot at this point, but they're tied for the Wild Card. Buster Posey has had a monster season, and could easily end up winning Rookie of the Year, which would be quite a feat considering the great play we've seen from rookies in 2010. Their big guns in the rotation haven't been as good as expected, but you can't count out a team that can go into a short series with Lincecum and Cain pitching the first two games.