Goodbye #5

With the first 24 hours of the post-Albert Pujols era now in the books, it's time for a little reflection.  Obviously, first post in a long time and to say a lot has happened would be an understatement.

The Cardinals are World Champs -- and as ulikely a champion as we've seen since the 2003 Marlins (or as the popular joke goes, the 2006 Cardinals).

But the big news now, of course, is the departure of Pujols.  Looking at things now, it seems like we saw this one coming, but that doesn't soften the blow.  All season, the standard quote regarding Pujols' impending free agent status was something like "I just can't imagine him anywhere but in St. Louis."  But, to me, that always felt more like wishful thinking than anything near a fact.

My first reaction was the same as most Cardinals fans....disbelief followed by anger followed by disappointment.  This quote from a 2009 article on MLB.com is exactly the type of thing we'd heard Albert say time and again when he discussed being a free agent for the first time in his career:

"Do I want to be in St. Louis forever? Of course," Pujols said. "Because that city has opened the door to me and my family like no other city is ever going to do. I don't want to [go to] any other city, but if that time comes I'm pretty sure wherever I go they are going to do the same way -- hopefully, open the doors. But I don't think it's to be anything compared to St. Louis.
"People from other teams want to play in St. Louis and they're jealous that we're in St. Louis because the fans are unbelievable. So why would you want to leave a place like St. Louis to go somewhere else and make $3 or $4 more million a year? It's not about the money. I already got my money. It's about winning and that's it. It's about accomplishing my goal and my goal is to try to win. If this organization shifts the other way then I have to go the other way."

As fans, we want to believe that all of our favorite players fall in line with this line of thinking.  And I do believe that Albert wanted to stay in St. Louis....really, I do.  I also think that had the Angels not stepped in with such a huge offer (and full no trade protection), then Albert would have accepted the Cardinals offer.  But, the Angels played this perfectly.  They let the suddenly flush Marlins up the bar, and then swooped in full force -- no doubt inspired by losing out on every big name they had pursued the past few offseasons.  This time, they did not get turned away.  And with that, Albert is now a former Cardinal.

In spite of the sting at watching perhaps the greatest player of this generation move on, you have to realize that we've been lucky enough to witness an 11 year run that rivals the greats of the game.  Albert's numbers belong in the conversation with names like Ruth, Dimaggio, Mantle, Musial and Williams.  That hasn't changed.  And he did it wearing the birds on the bat.  And now he'll do it wearing the red and white of another team.  That is the nature of baseball (and pro sports, in general) in 2011.

And I'm OK with that.  I'm not on the ledge.  Really.  Will the 2012 Cardinals suffer from the loss of #5?  Probably.  Are they doomed to be a repeat of the 2007 Cards?  I don't think so.  First off, the roster isn't as much of a patchwork as the 2007 Cards were.  The rotation is in decent shape -- Carpenter, Wainwright, Garcia and Lohse/Westbrook are still a solid 1-4, and fifth starters are a little easier to develop and/or sign than the other positions in the rotation.

The bullpen also seems to be in a bit better shape...Motte may not be the next Mariano Rivera -- or even the next Jason Isringhausen, for that matter -- but he showed he's learned how to handle the ninth inning in pressure situations.  Kyle McClellan, Mitchell Boggs, Scrabble (not going to even try to pretend that I can spell his last name)...these are solid building blocks.  The team wants to add another lefty, and there are still some big name late inning guys on the market (such as Ryan Madson) that could make it possible for the Cardinals to be a team that doesn't have to score more than 3 runs a game to win.

On offense, Berkman and Holliday still give the Cardinals some thunder in the middle of the lineup.  Add to that a (hopefully) healthy David Freese and Allen Craig, and it could be more than adequate.  There are some "ifs" -- will Craig be exposed with more at-bats?  Will Freese stay healthy for a full season?  Who is going to play shortstop and second base?  What about a full year with John Jay as a regular rather than a 4th outfielder?  Is Furcal coming back?  What about adding Carlos Beltran?  Or Jimmy Rollins?  Or does the team make a run at Prince Fielder -- who just might decide to take a shorter term deal in hopes of having a second turn on the free agent market in a few years.  Regardless of the path they choose, Mozelik has earned a vote a confidence in my opinion.  This Cardinals team has felt like a playoff contender every year that he's been in charge, and I don't think that will change in 2012.

And again, I don't think this team was ever going to repeat.  It's tough to win a World Series.  It is even tougher to do it a second time.  That bullseye is on the Cardinals' backs now -- and that was true whether #5 was staying or not.  I'm hardly the first or last to say this, but in reality, this probably sets up the Cardinals better for the next 10 years than if Albert had taken the $210 million/9-10 year deal that was reportedly on the table.  True, Cardinals fans would probably tolerate a decline in his skills through his late 30's/early 40's more than any other fan base, but the fact remains that Pujols is most likely not going to get any better than he has been for the last 11 years.  To pay a premium for those years is not something a successful franchise does.  One of the things that made the Atlanta Braves so successful for so long is that they were not afraid to change the individual parts to improve the whole.  They weren't afraid to send a good player packing if it meant saving the team from a bad contract that would hinder the team for years.  True, they never faced that type of dilemma with a player like Pujols, but the point is the same even if you're only talking about David Justice.

So this is a sad day for Cardinals fans, but it isn't really a bad day.  The Cardinals still have a good team, and have the financial flexibility to address some things that they would not have had if Albert stayed.  Someday, we'll look back fondly on the career of Albert Pujols, who will go into the Hall of Fame as a Cardinal.  We'll marvel at the 3 homer game against Texas, the time he put out one of the letters in the in the 'Big Mac' sign, how he played second base for a few innings in 2010 and played a few games at third in 2011.  Maybe we'll even be giving him a standing ovation as his #5 is retired (though personally, I'm not quite ready to afford him that honor just yet).  But as someone said on twitter yesterday -- "I was a Cardinals fan before Pujols and I'll still be one after Pujols."  We root for the birds on the bat.  Period.  It's a shame that Albert Pujols is no longer wearing them.  But it is not the end of the world.

Things are looking up.

Just a week ago, even the most optimistic Cardinals fan would have had trouble finding the silver lining to the Redbirds sluggish start to the season. The Cardinals were seemingly finding ways to lose games, and we had just witnessed perhaps the most heartbreaking instance yet -- Ryan Franklin blowing another save and Colby Rasmus turning the final out of the game into a game winning double for Miguel Tejada. Personally, I hang that one on Franklin...Rasmus has no excuse for not making that catch, but Franklin allowed two ducks with two outs. I don't completely disagree with Tony LaRussa's assertion that while Motte and Boggs are viable candidates to close in the future that they may not be any more ready for the task than Franklin is right now. But, I think I'd be a little more inclined to gamble on handing the job to Boggs to see what he can do.

After that loss, the Cardinals picked things up. They pounded the Giants in the series finale and then took 2 of 3 from the D'backs and are on the verge of sweeping the 4 game series with the Dodgers. We've also seen the bats wake up in a big way, which is very likely due to the return of Matt Holliday to the lineup. His recovery from adbominal surgery has been rather amazing, and with him back in the cleanup spot, the offense looks more like what we expected. Lance Berkman's bat has also woken up and he's hit 6 round trippers and driven in 12 runs over the last 7 days -- and is hitting .476 over that same stretch. Rasmus' bat has also continued to be hot as his average sits just below .400.

Of course, a week ago, I was saying it was far too early to hit the panic button, so the same caution has to be applied after a very good week. Both the Dodgers and the Diamondbacks are in the bottom 3 in ERA in the NL and are the two worst in homers allowed per 9 innings (although you could also point to the fact that Cardinal hitters do have something to do with those stats). The more encouraging stat is the fact that Cards have scored at least 6 runs in every game over the last 7 days, which includes a 13-8 loss to the D'backs -- the only loss in that span.

The upcoming week is a big one for the Redbirds...they return home to face the Nationals Tuesday through Thursday and then welcome the rival Reds to town for the first meeting of the year. There's no love lost between these teams, and I have a feeling that Johnny Gomes is going to find himself with a target on his back after the comments he made in response to Wainwright's injury. The Reds are currently 1.5 games ahead of the Cards and leading the NL Central. They figure to be the team to beat in the division, and this is just the first round of what promises to be a great season-long battle.

(Picture courtesy of stltoday.com, stats courtesy of fangraphs.com)

Time to look ahead

Not exactly breaking news to say that the Cardinals' season is over. If 3 straight losses to the Cubs don't signal the end in humiliating fashion, then I don't know what would. The way it is ending is not quite what I had envisioned -- nor I suppose what most experts envisioned. Some had tabbed the Reds to surprise and win the NL Central, but many of those same experts also picked the Cards for the Wild Card.

What's upsetting is this is a team that clearly has the talent to make a playoff run, and they just don't play up to their potential. When that happens, you start doing what Cubs fans have become famous for -- waiting for next year. The Cardinals future might be equally as uncertain as the Cards, too.

If I were GM, here's my list of priorities:

• The team may be in the market for a new manager. TLR has been taking it year to year for some time now, but this is the first time I've wondered if he'll come back or not -- and also whether I WANT him back. He's a hall of fame manager, and one of the greatest of the modern era if not all time. But, maybe he's finally reached the end of the line in St. Louis. The team certainly seems to have tuned him out, and with rumored friction with some of the young stars (Rasmus), might be time for a new voice. I'm not opposed to bringing in that new voice, but worry that Mozelik isn't the guy to find him. A bigger concern to me is the fact that if TLR hangs it up, it probably means that Dave Duncan is on his way out, too. Now, there certainly are other great pitching coaches out there, but Duncan is a true wizard and has more reclamation projects on his resume than anyone else.
• Pujols -- you have to get him signed to an extension this offseason. We, as a fan base, don't want to see what would happen if 2011 opens and talks are stalling.
• Role players. The team has guys that looked to be solid role players, but all of them seem to have gone in the tank at the same time. Brendan Ryan, Felipe Lopez, Nick Stavinoah....all have shown they have it in them to put up solid numbers, and all of them have had disappointing seasons. Plus, TLR relied too heavily on rookies such as Craig and John Jay. While they've given an indication that they are legit big leaguers, they just can't match the veteran presence -- such as what Ryan Ludwick brought to the table.
• A closer. I like Ryan Franklin, and he's been better than any of us had a right to expect. But -- he isn't a guy that is going to close for a World Series contender. It may be that one of the other arms in the bullpen will step up, but I think the team needs to look elsewhere. Perhaps Matt Capps, Brian Fuentes from the Twins will become available. Or, maybe the Twins would look to trade Joe Nathan as he rehabs his injury.
• Third Base -- We can't trust Freese to stay healthy. A third baseman with a little power and a decent average would do wonders for the offense, and give the team another option behind Pujols, Holliday and Rasmus.

I suppose the optimist -- which I try to be -- believes that a little retooling will do the trick. It might be, though, that some of the pieces that we thought were solid enough are little more than filler. It should be an interesting offseason to watch.

Where Did the Fight Go?

I had the best intentions of writing a post about the now infamous fight in Cincinnati last week, but the reality of life with a 6 month old child and 40+ hour a week job (not to mention being old and needing sleep) got in the way. With the extra few days of perspective, my viewpoint changes, and not really for the better.

The Cardinals finally looked like the team most expected them to be during that series versus the Reds. They were ticked at Brandon Phillips calling them "little bitches", and they set out to show him and his team why they were still the team to beat in the NL Central. It was a much anticipated series, and turned out to be a bit of a yawn. With sweep in hand, the Cards returned home to face the lowly Cubs and a roster that looked like it belonged in Des Moines. I was thinking sweep, or 2 of 3 at the very least.

Now that the Cards have dropped 2 of 3, I'm starting to become more and more convinced that this is a team destined to go out with a whimper once October rolls around -- assuming they even make it that far. For the second straight series, the Cardinals can only manage one win against the Cubs. Had the Redbirds shown any streak of consistency at all in 2010, I might chalk this up to the rivalry and the fact that these series against their biggest rival are about as close to meaningful baseball as the Cubs are going to see from here on out. We've seen this series after series with this year's Cardinals, though, and unless that mythical switch is out there just waiting to be thrown, we might be seeing a team falling far short of expectations. A shame, given that so many things are going right:

1. Wainwright is having his second straight Cy Young worthy campaign.
2. Pujols has turned things on and just became the only player in history to hit 30 HR in 10 straight seasons.
3. Matt Holliday is putting up numbers consistent with a guy who commanded huge money on the free agent market.
4. Jaime Garcia has more than made up for the departure of Joel Piniero and softened the injuries of Lohse and Penny.
5. Rookie Jon Jay has been raking and is an almost permanent fixture in the 2 hole.
6. Colby Rasmus still has some room to grow, but is clearly blossoming into one of the team's best players.
   

In spite of all of this, the Cards still find themselves trailing the Reds on 8/16. Why is that? You can point to some of the under-performers -- Ryan, Schumaker, Lopez, etc. Then there are injuries to guys like Freese, Lohse, Penny and (since traded) Ludwick. The big problem, though, is that the team doesn't seem to play with that "Win or Die" mentality that Tony LaRussa managed teams seem to carry. Tough to pinpoint a simple reason why that is missing, but if this team doesn't find its heart soon, then we'll be talking 2011 much sooner than any of us would have thought.

I-55 Showdown, Lou Retires, Cards Finally Lose a Game

The Cardinals opened the second half with 8 consecutive wins. During the run, they played as well as they have all season. The offense, for the most part, resembled the one that we all expected coming into the season. The most gratifying of the wins in this stretch was a come-from-behind win vs. the Dodgers last Sunday -- all with Albert Pujols taking a much deserved day off. Birthday boy Allen Craig filled in at first and had a big day -- driving in 3 runs, including the tying run. Matt Holliday, who is starting to look like a player worthy of being a team's highest paid, drove in the winning run. The Cards followed up the sweep of the Dodgers by taking 3 of 4 from the reeling Phillies before falling 2-0 in extra innings yesterday. From here, the scene shifts to Chicago as the I-55 rivalry is renewed. I've said time and again that for my money this is the best rivalry in baseball. The one element truly missing, however, is that it is extremely rare to have both teams in position to win it all. The last time this rivalry was ratcheted up due to a playoff berth was 2003. Both teams have been in the mix since, but that was the last time that you saw the off-field quotes that make a rivalry all it can be.

We also learned this week that Cubs manager, Lou Piniella, has decided to hang it up after this year. His time in Chicago hasn't been as successful as many had hoped. He did lead the Cubs to two consecutive division titles in '07 and '08, but both times the team was swept out of the playoffs. In '09, it was the Cardinals turn to win the division and get swept by a team from the NL West. 2010 has seen the Cubs underperform at almost every turn, so it comes as no surprise that Lou is ready to move on.

So the spotlight in Chicago shifts to the search for a new manager. Many expect Hall of Fame 2B Ryne Sandberg to take over, as he's paid his dues managing in the Cubs minor league system for the past 4 years, working his way up from low A to the AAA Iowa Cubs. I've had the pleasure of seeing him manage several games at for the single A Peoria Chiefs, and have to say that I'm surprised at the great job he did working with the young players. That said, I really hope that he doesn't get the job. I am always of the belief that your franchises great players get nothing but trouble when they return to manage/coach their team. Too often, you're just setting yourself up to boo and ultimately fire one of your great players. With apologies to Cubs fans that might read this, I really don't see the Cubs being World Series contenders over the next few years, and in this day and age, no manager gets long to prove he's the right man for the job. I would expect the 2011 Cubs to be similar to the 2010 edition, so you've already got one down season for Ryno if he gets the job. It could be as soon as 2012, then, that you start to wonder about his job security. Ryno's been far too classy of a player and now manager to put him through that.

I do think the Cubs need to promote the guy, though, and would think making him the bench coach/manager in waiting is a good move. Some other names that have been floated are Joe Girardi, Joe Torre, Bob Brenly, Pat Listach and Freddi Gonzalez. I'd be shocked of Girardi leaves the Yankees for the Cubs -- even though he is an Illinois native and began his baseball career with the Cubs. Torre would be intriguing, and would be amenable to a shorter term deal, but the fact that he'd be replacing a retiree that is younger than he is to manage a team that doesn't appear to be WS ready -- well, that makes me skeptical. I don't know much about Listach, who currently coaches for the Nationals. Gonzalez is believed to be the man that will replace Bobby Cox in Atlanta.

That leaves Brenly, and I really believe he'd be a fine choice. He's better equipped to ride out some of the bad contracts as the team phases out some of its veteran players (Soriano, Zambrano, Ramirez) in favor of a younger team (Castro, Colvin, Wells). I think Ryno would have a great influence on these guys, and Brenly's no-nonsense, "Just play hard" attitude would help to teach them the right way to play like a big leaguer. A younger Piniella would likely have been better for them, but you sense that he came to Chicago thinking a title was almost assured and that he didn't have much to do besides sit on the bench and let it all come together. Not to suggest that he hasn't done a better job than many give him credit for -- winning the division two years in a row is an accomplishment that you can't really discredit. But I also don't think this is the same guy that managed Cinci to a title and turned the Mariners into perennial contenders.

But first things first, the Cardinals are in town. I expect the Cardinals to take 2 of 3, losing on Friday, then winning both weekend games. No matter what, it will be a great weekend for baseball.

News and Notes - 6/15

As I mentioned earlier, its been a rough week for the Cardinals. They just finished a 1-5 West Coast road trip which saw them swept at the hands of the Dodgers and losers of 2 of 3 to the Diamondbacks -- including a heartbreaking walk-off loss in the finale on Sunday. The offense continues to be a bit less than what we had expected, as we all wonder when will Albert and Holliday get things rolling. NOTE: Neither has been terrible to date, but aren't producing to the level that we've become accustomed.

A couple of notes -

• Ryan Ludwick has been a bright spot of late on both offense and defense. He's driven in 15 RBI over the last 15 days and is hitting at .297. He fits Tony LaRussa's mindset perfectly, and seems to be at home almost anywhere in the order -- hitting 2nd a few games, then switching to 5th and even making an appearance as the cleanup hitter.
• Speaking of cleanup hitters -- Matt Holliday moved up to the 2 hole and went 2-4 with a base on balls and 2 runs scored. Don't expect this to be his regular slot in the lineup.
• Slightly scary moment during last night's win over the Mariners as Albert Pujols took a Jose Lopez throw off the ear hole of his batting helmet while trying to score on a ground ball. Albert stayed in the game, and it'll likely take more than that to move him to the bench for more than a routine day off.
• Adam Wainwright improved to 9-4 tossing 7 innings of 3 run ball while striking out 6. It was his 9th consecutive start with at least 6 Ks.
• Jeff Suppan makes his return tonight and will face off against M's lefty Ryan Rowland-Smith. Rowland-Smith is sitting at 0-5 with a 6.62 ERA. Suppan's time with the Brewers was somewhat less than successful as he comes with an 0-2 record and a 7.84 ERA. He only started 2 for the Brew Crew and totalled 31 innings pitched before being released on 6/7. The Cards are hurting for starters at the moment, but if all goes well, Suppan is in line to get a second start against Oakland this weekend.
• LaRussa's lineup shuffle worked for at least one night as the Cards put up 9 runs against the Mariners. The Holliday-Pujols-Ludwick combo reached base 10 times and drove in 6 runs. Colby Rasmus homered to drive in another 2 and rookie David Freese drove in the other. A different look is certain for tonight with a lefty on the mound.