Goodbye #5

With the first 24 hours of the post-Albert Pujols era now in the books, it's time for a little reflection.  Obviously, first post in a long time and to say a lot has happened would be an understatement.

The Cardinals are World Champs -- and as ulikely a champion as we've seen since the 2003 Marlins (or as the popular joke goes, the 2006 Cardinals).

But the big news now, of course, is the departure of Pujols.  Looking at things now, it seems like we saw this one coming, but that doesn't soften the blow.  All season, the standard quote regarding Pujols' impending free agent status was something like "I just can't imagine him anywhere but in St. Louis."  But, to me, that always felt more like wishful thinking than anything near a fact.

My first reaction was the same as most Cardinals fans....disbelief followed by anger followed by disappointment.  This quote from a 2009 article on MLB.com is exactly the type of thing we'd heard Albert say time and again when he discussed being a free agent for the first time in his career:

"Do I want to be in St. Louis forever? Of course," Pujols said. "Because that city has opened the door to me and my family like no other city is ever going to do. I don't want to [go to] any other city, but if that time comes I'm pretty sure wherever I go they are going to do the same way -- hopefully, open the doors. But I don't think it's to be anything compared to St. Louis.
"People from other teams want to play in St. Louis and they're jealous that we're in St. Louis because the fans are unbelievable. So why would you want to leave a place like St. Louis to go somewhere else and make $3 or $4 more million a year? It's not about the money. I already got my money. It's about winning and that's it. It's about accomplishing my goal and my goal is to try to win. If this organization shifts the other way then I have to go the other way."

As fans, we want to believe that all of our favorite players fall in line with this line of thinking.  And I do believe that Albert wanted to stay in St. Louis....really, I do.  I also think that had the Angels not stepped in with such a huge offer (and full no trade protection), then Albert would have accepted the Cardinals offer.  But, the Angels played this perfectly.  They let the suddenly flush Marlins up the bar, and then swooped in full force -- no doubt inspired by losing out on every big name they had pursued the past few offseasons.  This time, they did not get turned away.  And with that, Albert is now a former Cardinal.

In spite of the sting at watching perhaps the greatest player of this generation move on, you have to realize that we've been lucky enough to witness an 11 year run that rivals the greats of the game.  Albert's numbers belong in the conversation with names like Ruth, Dimaggio, Mantle, Musial and Williams.  That hasn't changed.  And he did it wearing the birds on the bat.  And now he'll do it wearing the red and white of another team.  That is the nature of baseball (and pro sports, in general) in 2011.

And I'm OK with that.  I'm not on the ledge.  Really.  Will the 2012 Cardinals suffer from the loss of #5?  Probably.  Are they doomed to be a repeat of the 2007 Cards?  I don't think so.  First off, the roster isn't as much of a patchwork as the 2007 Cards were.  The rotation is in decent shape -- Carpenter, Wainwright, Garcia and Lohse/Westbrook are still a solid 1-4, and fifth starters are a little easier to develop and/or sign than the other positions in the rotation.

The bullpen also seems to be in a bit better shape...Motte may not be the next Mariano Rivera -- or even the next Jason Isringhausen, for that matter -- but he showed he's learned how to handle the ninth inning in pressure situations.  Kyle McClellan, Mitchell Boggs, Scrabble (not going to even try to pretend that I can spell his last name)...these are solid building blocks.  The team wants to add another lefty, and there are still some big name late inning guys on the market (such as Ryan Madson) that could make it possible for the Cardinals to be a team that doesn't have to score more than 3 runs a game to win.

On offense, Berkman and Holliday still give the Cardinals some thunder in the middle of the lineup.  Add to that a (hopefully) healthy David Freese and Allen Craig, and it could be more than adequate.  There are some "ifs" -- will Craig be exposed with more at-bats?  Will Freese stay healthy for a full season?  Who is going to play shortstop and second base?  What about a full year with John Jay as a regular rather than a 4th outfielder?  Is Furcal coming back?  What about adding Carlos Beltran?  Or Jimmy Rollins?  Or does the team make a run at Prince Fielder -- who just might decide to take a shorter term deal in hopes of having a second turn on the free agent market in a few years.  Regardless of the path they choose, Mozelik has earned a vote a confidence in my opinion.  This Cardinals team has felt like a playoff contender every year that he's been in charge, and I don't think that will change in 2012.

And again, I don't think this team was ever going to repeat.  It's tough to win a World Series.  It is even tougher to do it a second time.  That bullseye is on the Cardinals' backs now -- and that was true whether #5 was staying or not.  I'm hardly the first or last to say this, but in reality, this probably sets up the Cardinals better for the next 10 years than if Albert had taken the $210 million/9-10 year deal that was reportedly on the table.  True, Cardinals fans would probably tolerate a decline in his skills through his late 30's/early 40's more than any other fan base, but the fact remains that Pujols is most likely not going to get any better than he has been for the last 11 years.  To pay a premium for those years is not something a successful franchise does.  One of the things that made the Atlanta Braves so successful for so long is that they were not afraid to change the individual parts to improve the whole.  They weren't afraid to send a good player packing if it meant saving the team from a bad contract that would hinder the team for years.  True, they never faced that type of dilemma with a player like Pujols, but the point is the same even if you're only talking about David Justice.

So this is a sad day for Cardinals fans, but it isn't really a bad day.  The Cardinals still have a good team, and have the financial flexibility to address some things that they would not have had if Albert stayed.  Someday, we'll look back fondly on the career of Albert Pujols, who will go into the Hall of Fame as a Cardinal.  We'll marvel at the 3 homer game against Texas, the time he put out one of the letters in the in the 'Big Mac' sign, how he played second base for a few innings in 2010 and played a few games at third in 2011.  Maybe we'll even be giving him a standing ovation as his #5 is retired (though personally, I'm not quite ready to afford him that honor just yet).  But as someone said on twitter yesterday -- "I was a Cardinals fan before Pujols and I'll still be one after Pujols."  We root for the birds on the bat.  Period.  It's a shame that Albert Pujols is no longer wearing them.  But it is not the end of the world.

Uh Oh

If the first week is any indication, we're in for a long season. So far the Cardinals have been a mess....Starting pitching is just poor enough to lose, the closer has blown 2 out of 3 save chances, the mega star has hit into more double plays than he has driven in runs and the other super star missed the week due to an appendectomy. Not a good way to start a season in which you're already missing your co-ace due to Tommy John surgery. Indeed, it could be an agonizingly long season for the Redbirds.

Hitting the panic button on April 9 is foolish. It goes without saying that there is much baseball left to play, and there is reason to believe that this is just a team finding its legs a bit in the early going. But the Adrian Gonzalez-less Padres proved to be just as tough a match-up as they were last year, and while the Pirates aren't headed for October baseball, they are not the doormat that they have been in year's past. Still, posting a 2-4 record against these teams wasn't what even the most pessimistic fans expected.

The West Coast swing will be critical. Losing to the defending champs in extra innings isn't so much of a worry, but the way that the Cardinals lost is. First there was another blown save by Franklin, and that was followed up by some shoddy defensive play. They committed 3 errors, but none more costly than Albert's drop of Brian Tallet's throw that would have completed an inning-ending double play. It isn't a good idea to give a team more than 3 outs in an inning, and the Giants took advantage when Aaron Rowand's two out single drove in the winning run. This could have been a game that signaled the start of a turnaround for the Cards -- they had battled to stay in a game and scored more than 3 runs for the first time this season. This was a win that had the potential to carry over to the next couple of games and help the Cardinals right the ship, but instead it was another frustrating loss by a team that really should be better than this. Matt Holliday is supposed to return this weekend, so hopefully he can shake the effects of abdominal surgery quickly and help put a little punch back in the lineup. It's early, folks....not time to hit the panic button just yet, but the fact that we're mentioning the panic button this early into the season isn't a good sign.

There have been some bright spots early on.....

1. Cobly Rasmus - He's hitting .348 out of the two hole (and has an weighted average of .423). The walk rate is up and the strikeout rate is down. An even better sign? He's started every game this season and hit in the same spot in the lineup every game.
2. Allen Craig - Called on to help fill in for Holliday, Craig may have earned himself more playing time. He can fill in for Berkman in right and spell either corner infield spot if needed. He's driven in as many as Albert (4) in 8 fewer plate appearances, and has stolen 2 bases on top of that. His only hitting .238 (weighted average is .275), and aside from a propensity to strike out, he's been a plus for the birds.
3. Jaime Garcia - It's only one start, but striking out 9 while only walking 2 in a complete game shutout was a nice boost after the Cards had dropped their first two games of the season to the Padres. With his second start coming in spacious AT&T Park against a light hitting Giants offense, he might be able to post a second quality start. With Matt Cain starting for the Giants, getting a win will be difficult given the Cardinals' struggles on offense.

And some not-so-bright spots.....

1. Pujols - Hitting into double plays, committing errors, leaving runners on base. These aren't things you think of when you mention Albert's name, but that's what we've seen so far. Pujols is truly one of the all time greats, so as with the whole team, it is far too early to worry. Not even the best player in the game is immune to a cold streak, so the turnaround is coming. But right now -- tough to watch.
2. Ryan Franklin - Hardly a dominant closer on his best days, but two blown saves and an ERA of 6.00....not what you want from your closer. He's averaging 3 HR per 9 IP -- also a concern. It is very likely that LaRussa and Duncan are going to have to turn to another option if/when Franklin hits his annual late season slide -- if not long before.
3. The Offense - 3rd lowest number of runs scored in the majors (behind the 1-6 Rays and the 3-3 Dodgers -- although the Dodgers were postponed on Friday and have played one game less). They've produced 4 runs exactly once in 7 games, and that was last night's loss to the Giants. They are striking out more than they are walking and have the 3rd worst batting average in the NL. Switch to weighted batting average and this is the worst hitting team in the NL. Losing Holliday certainly hasn't helped, because no one's pitching to Albert. But then again, he hasn't done much with the pitches he's been able to hit.

Today is a new day, and the Cardinals can turn things around by beating Cain and the Giants. After they leave the Bay area, the Cardinals face the D'backs, who split two games with the Rockies and dropped a series to the Cubs before handing the Reds their first loss of the year last night. Arizona has the type of pitching that can make mediocre hitters look good, so if the Cards can take the next two from the Giants and head to the desert with a little confidence, things might look a bit better in a week's time.

(Stats courtesy of Fangraphs.com. Photo courtesy of stltoday.com.)

Where Did the Fight Go?

I had the best intentions of writing a post about the now infamous fight in Cincinnati last week, but the reality of life with a 6 month old child and 40+ hour a week job (not to mention being old and needing sleep) got in the way. With the extra few days of perspective, my viewpoint changes, and not really for the better.

The Cardinals finally looked like the team most expected them to be during that series versus the Reds. They were ticked at Brandon Phillips calling them "little bitches", and they set out to show him and his team why they were still the team to beat in the NL Central. It was a much anticipated series, and turned out to be a bit of a yawn. With sweep in hand, the Cards returned home to face the lowly Cubs and a roster that looked like it belonged in Des Moines. I was thinking sweep, or 2 of 3 at the very least.

Now that the Cards have dropped 2 of 3, I'm starting to become more and more convinced that this is a team destined to go out with a whimper once October rolls around -- assuming they even make it that far. For the second straight series, the Cardinals can only manage one win against the Cubs. Had the Redbirds shown any streak of consistency at all in 2010, I might chalk this up to the rivalry and the fact that these series against their biggest rival are about as close to meaningful baseball as the Cubs are going to see from here on out. We've seen this series after series with this year's Cardinals, though, and unless that mythical switch is out there just waiting to be thrown, we might be seeing a team falling far short of expectations. A shame, given that so many things are going right:

1. Wainwright is having his second straight Cy Young worthy campaign.
2. Pujols has turned things on and just became the only player in history to hit 30 HR in 10 straight seasons.
3. Matt Holliday is putting up numbers consistent with a guy who commanded huge money on the free agent market.
4. Jaime Garcia has more than made up for the departure of Joel Piniero and softened the injuries of Lohse and Penny.
5. Rookie Jon Jay has been raking and is an almost permanent fixture in the 2 hole.
6. Colby Rasmus still has some room to grow, but is clearly blossoming into one of the team's best players.
   

In spite of all of this, the Cards still find themselves trailing the Reds on 8/16. Why is that? You can point to some of the under-performers -- Ryan, Schumaker, Lopez, etc. Then there are injuries to guys like Freese, Lohse, Penny and (since traded) Ludwick. The big problem, though, is that the team doesn't seem to play with that "Win or Die" mentality that Tony LaRussa managed teams seem to carry. Tough to pinpoint a simple reason why that is missing, but if this team doesn't find its heart soon, then we'll be talking 2011 much sooner than any of us would have thought.

Getting caught up.....

Started out the week intending to continue commenting on the All Star Selections, specifically how I don't think Strasburg is among the "snubs". I started writing that last Sunday night, and here we are a week later, and haven't finished that thought. In lieu of a bunch of disjointed posts, I thought I'd just get a bit caught up on things I had wanted to cover over the last week.

• All Stars -- I know that many wanted to see Strasburg make the NL team - and he might yet be an injury sub - but I don't think it was a big deal that he was left off. In fact, I think there are a number of more deserving young pitchers that have earned a spot ahead of him. Jaime Garcia, Matt Latos and Tyler Clippard all deserve to be there.
• I know that Ubaldo Jimenez is the choice of most to start for the NL, but I think Josh Johnson has been the better starter. Of course, hard to argue with 15 wins.
• Felt like 1999 again on Wednesday, as a record number of HRs were hit. Remember when it was like this EVERY night?
• We almost saw a near perfect game last night (Saturday) as Reds rookie Tim Wood carried the Perfecto all the way until the bottom of the 9th. While he was more hittable, Roy Halladay matched Wood with zeroes all the way, and the Phillied ended up prevailing in extra innings. I really felt bad for Wood -- as you almost feel like this is a game that could end up having a negative effect in the long run, because he almost certainly feels like he let his team down in the end.
• Wood is just the latest rookie to have an impressive night. Rookies have been the big story this year, and I can't remember a year that has been dominated by youngsters like 2010 has. Here is a quick rundown of what a rookie All Star team might look like. Don't think this would be a bad team at all....

1. Catcher - Carlos Santana - CLE - Only hitting .425 through 29 games. Buster Posey could back him up. You lose some on offense with him....he's only hitting .389 through 38 games.
2. First Base - Ike Davis - NYM - The guy that Mets brass wanted to shield from being viewed as the savior of the club keyed the team's turnaround by hitting .337 with 11 HR and 40 RBI in his first 75 games.
3. Second Base - Scott Sizemore - DET or Neil Walker - PIT - Weaker position for the rookie class, but both of these guys have serious potential and are hitting at or near .300.
4. Third Base - David Freese - STL - OK, giving the nod to my team over the more hyped Pedro Alvarez. But Freese earns it, checking in hitting .361 with 4 HR and 36 RBI.
5. Shortstop - Starlin Castro - CHC - He's been a brighter spot for a struggling Cubs squad, and drove in 6 runs in his debut. He has struggled a bit after his first night, but he's only 20.
6. Outfielders - Jason Heyward - ATL, Tyler Colvin - CHC, Brennan Boesch - DET - Heyward is the most known of the trio, but Colvin has played his way into regular playing time in recent weeks. Boesch has the best stats of the three with a .397 average, 12 HR and 49 RBI.
7. Starters - Jaime Garcia - STL, Mike Leake - CIN, Stephen Strasburg - WAS. Garcia has been as dependable as any starter for the Cardinals, and has stepped up with 8 wins after injuries to Kyle Loshe and Brad Penny. Leake make the Reds opening day roster bypassing the minors completely and has already racked up 109.2 innings and 6 wins. Strasburg, of course, is THE guy we were all waiting for, and he has not disappointed. While I'll continue to make the case that others are more deserving of All Star spots, there is no denying that Strasburg has lived up to the hype through his first several starts and looks like he could turn out to be a once in a lifetime type of player.
8. Relievers - Neftali Perez - TEX - Perez has 23 saves for the first place Rangers. When baseball Pundits spoke of him early on, you hear the classic phrase "...his stuff is nasty."

Now we head into the All Star Break....the Home Run derby is on tap for tomorrow night -- an event that really isn't as exciting as it used to be, and something promises to give us several more hours of Chris Berman than anyone this side of his mother really cares to listen to in a single evening. But, despite my complaints, I usually watch and generally enjoy the event. The game itself should be interesting. We have a great mix of veteran and new talent at the game, and I really am rooting for the NL to finally break through and win one. See you on the other side of the break, and as ever, thanks for reading.

** Stats courtesty of MLB.com **

How could I write about rookies and not focus on Garcia?

One of my first posts at Spot of Red's new home talked about 2010 being the 'Year of the Rookie', and I focused a bit on the great season that David Freese is having. Well, after the other night's Cards/M's game, I'm finding it hard to believe that I focused on Freese over Jaime Garcia. Of course, Freese is having a great year, but if you had to pick a ROY candidate from the Cards, I'd say Garcia has earned the honor. You figured he wouldn't be terrible, given that he parlayed a strong spring showing into a job as the 5th starter. But I, for one, certainly didn't expect to be sitting here in mid-June with the kid sitting at 6-3 with a 1.59 ERA. Brad Penny was expected to be the "replacement" for Joel Piniero as #3 starter -- but injuries to him and also to #4 starter Kyle Lohse have pushed Garcia to the defacto #3 spot. And he has responded. While I think 'Year of the Rookie' is a more descriptive way to describe 2010 thus far, I've heard/read others refer to it as the 'Year of the Pitcher'. Strasburg and Heyward have garnered most of the headlines, but it just might Garcia who ultimately winds up being rookie of the year.